False Positive?
“Bet not thy whole wad.” Basic investment tenet. Three weeks ago, in an admittedly weak moment of “irrational exuberance”, I thought the market was heading up despite the news. But, this is the Great Recession. I didn ’t even follow my own advice. Investment newsletters that I pay a lot of money for every year said there was a "strong case” that the Dow had formed a base. I could see their point. But the November 20 Dow Theory bear market confirmation is still in effect. We have no contrary signal to indicate a change to a bull market. So, I’m heavy in cash. On January 6, I put about 15% of my cash position into DIA s and considered dollar cost averaging in to the potentially revived market. I haven’t added a dime to the position since. “Bet not thy whole wad.” No one knows. According to Richard Russell , right now selling pressure has declined dramatically but no one wants to buy into this market. That is a very bad sign . The market cannot rally without buyers and right now no