Ummagumma

Two important Dow Theory events recently serve as a possible harbinger for a near-term resumption in the Bull Market within the on-going Bear Market in stocks. Back on June 7, the Dow Industrials violated the previous most recent lowest low in February by closing at 9816.49. Significantly, however, the Transportation Index never confirmed the action of the Dow. Even though the Dow continued to move lower in June, the Transports never violated their previous February low. This classic Dow Theory “non-confirmation” often means a reversal of the present trend. In this case, it meant a possible swing back to the upside for the markets. The focus for the theory then shifted to the most recent highest high (also coincidentally in June). If both averages could better their June highs then we would have a classic Dow Theory “confirmation”; in this case, confirmation of the reversal in market forces. That is what happened yesterday . Dow Theory confirmations and non-confirmations are always ...

By the time you get to Seventh Symphonies several renowned composers turn up missing. Tchaikovsky, Brahms, and Schumann are among many composers who never scored more the four, five or six numbered symphonies in their lifetime. Beethoven is still around, however. Beethoven has an honest energy that sounds bright and inspired yet there is a sophisticated technical expertise to his compositions that makes them enjoyable emotionally, intellectually, and artistically. Beethoven is never sappy. He is crisp, wide-ranging, passionate, both serious and light. This is true with his Great Seventh, the best of all symphonies considered in this post. Beethoven's Seventh Symphony (1812) is of significant proportions and emotional depth, reminding me of the Eroica . The symphony as a whole is a terrific, rhythmic powerhouse. It builds from movement to movement wonderfully until we reach a kind of frenzied state. It begins with a subtle yet grand opening movement , the string section sometimes r...

I knew when I cast my vote in November 2008 for Barack Obama that he would make every effort to grow government, raise the national debt, and would most likely not be able to do anything of substance to slay the bear market and ease the Great Recession . Presidents get far too much credit when the economy is going well and far too much blame for when it isn ’t. The truth is, regardless of the power of the Federal Government, no government can control economic forces. The truth is the economy will do whatever it is going to do through the natural ebb and flow of bulls and bears. Government tampering with the economy only makes things worse in the long run . I suppose from that perspective the more a president attempts to stem the tide of recession or to encourage recovery the more they should be held accountable for making things worse. So that blame is justified. At any rate, it would not matter much if John McCain had been elected president in 2008. We would still be in a stalled eco...

Note: This review contains very minor spoilers, but major story elements are not revealed about the film. Yesterday afternoon Jeffery and I drove down near Atlanta to meet Mark and catch a matinee of Christopher Nolan’s latest film, Inception . As I have posted before, Nolan is my favorite living director . The reviews were largely positive even though most everyone agrees the film is somewhat of a challenge to follow. “Cerebral” was a word the critics were throwing around a lot. Along with “mind-blowing.” I had very high expectations that it would be a great in-theater experience, which is the primary reason I saw it in IMAX . It was all worth it. Nolan did not disappoint in this cleverly constructed labyrinth that races along relentlessly building, transforming into ever greater depth and complexity, filled with great action, effects, sophisticated characters, and a plot that twists back on itself in typical Nolan style . What is typical Nolan style? Non-linear story telling. Pi...

A view from atop one of the fields near Swan Cabin. Looking east. For many years now the Cumberland Island Armadillos scurry as far north as they usually dare to tread together and experience high summer at Swan Cabin . The annual affair (there is no other word for it) takes place usually around July Fourth (see July 4, 2009 post) thanks to precision ‘Dillo planning and superior coordination just after new year’s day. The 2010 version was, for me, a four-day, three-night experience. Three hours drive away. Close to a mile high. Traditionally, ‘Dillos day hike to Bob Bald to get a vista view of one of the last high ridges in the great Appalachian Mountain chain reaching to the east and south. But, all of the rest of the time is spent on the Swan Cabin grounds enjoying many acres of beautiful open mountain meadows alive with wildflowers and cool, summer breezes. We pitch tents under a 500 year old oak. One of two that used to grow there, twin elders. For five centuries they great togethe...

For my birthday before I went to India in 1985 my parents gave me a pair of custom sandals, handmade by a real tanner. Actually, I found the style of the sandals in a leather shop in downtown Athens, had the owner (who made saddles, belts, and all kinds of leather-goods), measure my feet and make me a pair. My parents mailed me a check inside a birthday card. At the time I was making little money, still living like a college student even though I had already graduated a couple of years back. But, I was going to India and I wanted to wear these sandals. Very romantic of me actually. I admit I have a definable romantic streak at times. Even though the sandals were very well made, they hurt my feet for about the first month or so until I had them properly broken in. Solid leather soles with a slight rubber heel cushion. They fit tight and I walked dozens of miles in India in them. They were my primary footwear there. For years they were left in the closet after my return. I got them out n...

We live in a time of few great leaders. Instead we have actors, practitioners of rhetoric and hyperbole, buzz words and sound bites. Leadership is about how you look, how you sound, how you behave, passing various litmus tests, and translating the latest polling data into acceptable speeches designed to garnish the most popularity. Leadership is not about vision anymore. Vision requires specifics and even our most eloquent and charismatic politicians ( President Obama being the master of charisma, for example) are vague on specifics within the glorified grandiose. Statesmanship is in critical condition in our political process. It may very well have died with Senator Robert Byrd . Byrd was an interesting political phenomenon. He certainly was not above playing the political game. Part of Statesmanship is knowing that game and playing it to your advantage, but with tangible substance. He literally fiddled his way into the Senate. He reflected the prejudices of his constituency . But, ...