Tuesday, January 11, 2011

1/11/11


This is the chart for GLD since October 2010. It could signal an impending bearish reversal. It could be just working off an extended overbought condition. Since I hold a lot of it and am doing nothing I guess I'm betting in the long-term the latter will be the case. This chart was created at bigcharts.com.

Well, I won't get to blog this date many times in my life. I wasn't around the last time this happened, in 1911. Maybe I'll be around in 2111. Long odds on that one though.

Another snow day, er, work day at home. The roads were still pretty slick this morning so I figured I would go in about 10-ish. But, I wasn't going anywhere until somebody else told me I wouldn't be alone when I got there. Our support department transferred all lines to various cell phones and decided to work from their numerous homes. That tipped the president's hand and he gave a Rah-Rah email about "Let's make the most of this time" and "we'll be open for business as usual tomorrow." Sure.

It is suppose to get down to 17 tonight with 15-20 mph gusts. This is what my dad calls an "arctic blast." It got up to about 36 today and there was a lot of melting before the wind gusts started about 4 pm. All the wetness on the roads will freeze tonight and everything will be a jolly sheet of ice before dawn tomorrow. Expect me to be late.

I spent time today on the phone with my marketing coordinator, the president, two salesmen, and my other employees. We got a couple of collateral material projects rolling and I was involved in settling a data storage issue with one of our clients. Typical stuff mixed in with the usual emails and voice messages. Only one walk with the dogs today. I drove my daughter over to my parents for a change of pace. We played Rummikub when she got back. I worked out on my elliptical afterwards. It was too windy, cold, and wet to actually go for a run.

No mail now for two days. So much for the old postal motto.

The chart at the top of this post shows GLD trapped in a trading range. Triple Tops is what they call this pattern. In pure chart reading theory that's a sign of a pending reversal. My guess (bet, hope, prayer, whatever) is it will be short-lived if it comes. The MACD finally turned negative yesterday and remained slightly so today. That's good. The last time it was negative was back on August 12 last year (the last time I added to my holdings was July 2 at $118). That's a long rally and it was past time for a rest. The fact that gold was up today while the key indicators (including the Slow Stochastics and the RSI) worked off an overbought condition is a sign of strength or at least resistance to downward pressure.

GLD settled today right at the 50-day moving average. So we'll see what happens next. No one knows. One investment advisory letter with 45 years experience called it quits with his most recent issue. Harry Schultz went out by saying "Wake me up at $2,400 gold." I'll drink to that.

My daughter posted this pic on Facebook today. She took it late yesterday morning when the snow was still a wonderland without ice. This male Cardinal seemed to be more publicity hound than bird.

No comments: