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Showing posts from February, 2018

To All Gun Owners: You Are Free But You Are Not Entitled

It almost seems ironic that in the time of Trumpism that we are witnessing not one but two progressive tipping points in America culture.  The first was/is the #MeToo movement that I blogged about previously.  Now we are seeing a backlash against the anti-gun control lobby , particularly the National Rifle Association (NRA), in light of the recent mass shooting at Parkland School in Florida. America is a nation of violence and murder .   Mass shootings  have become a routine part of the American psyche.    As I mentioned before , these shootings occur on a regular, almost rhythmic basis.   Sure, the vast majority of Americans are responsible about their gun choices.   But enough of us are unstable and guns are so easily available that far more Americans have been murdered by legal domestic firearms since the "war on terrorism" began in 2001 ( about 500,000 ) than by any terrorist organization ( generously estimating 5,000 ).  You are factually 100 times more likely to

Meditations on the Vietnam War: Debate and Disillusionment

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Building on the operational success of the Ia Drang Valley campaign , General William Westmoreland propelled through 1966 and 1967 with a series of large search-and-destroy operations intended to find North Vietnamese and Viet Cong ( PAVN ) base camps and border areas. The goal was to annihilate both the units defending the camps and the logistical infrastructure underpinning the capacity for the PAVN to wage war in the South.  Thereby, it was hoped, the South Vietnamese government could stabilize the country.  This post is a broad overview of that phase of the war.  I chose not to go into the specific big operations (there are links provided for that) and focus instead on the larger strategic matters of this time. “Westmoreland tested the effectiveness of the attrition tactics in a series of major search-and-destroy operations in the fall of 1966 and the first half of 1967.  The MACV hoped to force the enemy into the open where the superior firepower of the allies could anni

Sideways at the 50-day Moving Average

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Last week the Dow consolidated in a sideways path along the 50-day moving average , reclaiming about 50% of the ground it lost threes ago.  For the moment the 50-day MA is serving as resistance for the Dow.  This Forbes article states: "It’s unclear what motivated the market merriment, but some analysts suggested that the Federal Reserve’s dovish tone might have had some impact. In its semiannual monetary policy report, the Fed pointed to an upswing in inflation toward that end of the year, but didn’t suggest that it would prompt a more aggressive monetary policy, meaning that it’s still, at least for now, on track for three rate hikes this year. It stuck to its belief that inflation would hit or come close to its 2% goal."   We are approaching 600 days since the Dow last touched the 200-day MA, an extraordinary run - and also a possible indication that the "correction" has yet to fully express itself.  It will be interesting to watch this play out over the co

A Dow Rebound

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Donald Trump said the stock markets were " making a big mistake " two weeks ago when the sudden downturn I mentioned in my previous post occurred. Well, this past week was a different story.  This bull market is showing historic resilience .  The Dow powered upward all five days last week in what was its best week since 2013 .  Was Trump right? In 2017, the Dow rose 5,000 points, a record !  Trump has mentioned 30,000 as a target for 2018.   So, perhaps the minor "snapback" of two weeks ago was an anomaly. Maybe we are never going to touch the 200-day moving average again (that's sarcasm).  My last post mentioned that many of the technical indicators used when charting stocks were flashing "overbought," sending the Dow into correction territory .  The republican tax cut fed fuel to the already hot markets .  Initially, the concern was for the economy overheating - sending interest rates and inflation higher as well as driving up the debt.  In almo

Strength on the Verge of Weakness

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Since the day after Election Day 2016 the Dow Industrial Average has not touched its 200-day Moving Average .  Technically, the Dow has been above this important average since late-June 2016 (the present bull market began in 2009 under President Obama) - that's roughly 19 months, over 570 days ago.  I have not been able to discover what the Dow’s current record is for days above the 200-day MA, but we must be close to it.  (The record of the S&P 500 is over 600 days and dates from the mid-1950's.) I have watched the stock markets for over 30 years now and I have never seen anything like this.  The previous longest streaks for the Dow are in the area of 300-350 days.  The strength of this Bull Market  is highly unusual.  Here is what the last six months of the Dow Industrial Average looks like in a technical chart.  The Dow has moved from under 22,000 to over 26,000 during this time frame.  Incredible resilience! The red candlesticks represent down days. The white rep