Recession 2020? Our Salvation?
The last five recessions are shown in vertical gray bars on this chart comparing the 10-year treasury yield to the 2-year yield. As you can see, the yield as slowly worked its way back into negative territory once again, after a very long bull run . Stock markets were shaken August 14 by the fact that the 10-year yield on US Treasuries briefly turned lower than the 2-year yield. I say "briefly" because it was an intraday reading. By the close of the day the 10-year was higher, albeit by the thinnest of margins. I learned long ago from the late, great Richard Russell to discount most intraday action where markets are concerned (unless you are a day-trader, which I am not). It is the action at the close of the day that really counts. When the longer term treasury yields less than the shorter term one it is called an " inverted yield curve " (the first since 2007 ). The 10-year vs. the 3-month treasury yield actually inverted back on May 15 without signi