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Showing posts from September, 2009

Obama and Ahmadinejad

They are building a uranium enrichment nuclear reactor in Iran that can ultimately power a nuclear warhead . Only they forgot to tell the rest of the world . The Ayatollah has told Ahmadinejad to say this is no violation . The puppet president complies. The real power in Iran obviously prefers the focus be on the recent unrest due to his nation's presidential election , but Obama has outplayed him . Even though the Iranian president says it would be a mistake to think they have not complied with all international bodies of law, Obama has placed Iran in a political position where they must now allow inspectors to examine the site in question or face economic sanctions by the international community. For now, Obama has forced Iran's hand . Typically, and without any sensitivity to their situation, Iran remains defiant . Ahmadinejad looks increasingly foolish . According to David Albright , president of the Institute for Science and International Security : "Iran has said

Lotsa Rain

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The white area in the NOAA "storm total" map above indicates at least 15 inches of rain within the last 24 hours. Various shades of purple are between 10-15 inches. I don't remember a wetter September. It has rained practically every day for the last 2 weeks. Last night and this morning Atlanta got hit hard . There's a great deal of flooding in some places . I swore I'd never complain about rain again after the last few years of drought. So...I'm not complaining. But then, I don't live in Atlanta either. Jeez.

Obama Gets It Right

It is, of course, much easier to criticize in politics than to offer praise. Certainly, I have offered several posts chastising President Obama for various policies (mostly having to do with raising the public debt). But let's take a moment to highlight more than a couple of things that Obama has gotten right so far. I applaud the way Obama has attacked the devious ways of the Bush administration by giving us more honest accounting methods as reflected in the federal budget and by allowing our fallen soldiers the honor and dignity of photo recognition when they arrive back in our country. The appointment of Sotomayor was a choice I supported, even though I feel she is not the brightest bulb in the supreme court chandelier. It is in keeping with the tradition that began with the unfortunate choice of Clarence Thomas and with Chief Justice Roberts - mediocrity isn't usually politically controversial . I believe the liberal minority must be preserved and, if possible, expanded

Rootin' for the (damn) wild card

Well, the Atlanta Braves made things hard on themselves by playing only a "so-so" August, especially against the Philadelphia Phillies . Now, they are on fire again but it is a little late in the season to be making dramatic moves up in the standings. Being 8 games behind the Phillies with only 16 games to play means they need a collapse by Philadelphia in order to win the NL East. That probably ain ’t going to happen. Though Atlanta has won 7 games in a row , the Phillies have won 5 in a row and seem to be playing great ball. But, tonight the Braves start a big weekend series at home against Philadelphia. The Braves need a sweep of the series, but not necessarily so they can possibly win the division. They need a sweep because they come in to tonight’s game trailing the Colorado Rockies by only 4 games in the loss column for the NL Wild Card spot. Anyone who knows my love for baseball also knows that I hate the designated hitter rule, artificial turf, post-season gam

A Touchy Subject

Well is there anything more inflammatory in America than the issue of racism? Before I give you my take on that let's look at what former president Jimmy Carter had to say yesterday about the outrageous, spontaneous interjection by South Carolina congressman Joe Wilson during President Obama's big pitch for health care reform last week. Carter called the shout of "You lie!" by Wilson racially motivated . Wilson apparently exhibited racism in such a remark . That's the most likely conclusion to be drawn . Or is it? I think Jimmy Carter is an exceptional person . He was, however, the least effective president of my lifetime . I once explained to some academic friends that Carter's presidency simply prepared him for the activity of the rest of this life . He has been a far more potent force since being president. Perhaps, in contrast to his time in office, our most effective post-president . This is not to say Carter doesn't understand racism and bigotry.

I remember

The world changed on September 11, 2001. The way airports operate changed. The way your privacy is defined changed. We are still in two wars as a result of policies adopted post-9/11. One of those wars I have always opposed. The other I have always supported. I'm not sure we are "winning" either of them and the fallout from both will likely continue to be a symptom of how our world has changed. Iraq had nothing to do with 9/11 . In my opinion, that war was a dereliction of duty by an incompetent president who had no clue what victory meant and was misled by a fanatical advisory team . The war was in direct opposition to the Powell Doctrine . One day, I am sure we will hear how much Colin Powell disagreed with the absurd and myopic misuse of power wielded by the ilk of Chaney and Rumsfeld . That we have somewhat righted a terribly executed military policy in a country where our men and women should have never been serving as soldiers does not justify the war i

Booster Power!

Of course, there was one other small detail about my post yesterday and these little "wrinkles" are what make Dow Theory so fascinating to me. The "non-confirmation" always sets up a possible "confirmation." Yesterday, in spite of the rare, cautious "double non-confirmation" the Dow was only about 33 points below a new high. Today both the Dow and the Transports advanced to new highs - together. As I mentioned back in July there is no clearer sign under Dow Theory that the market will go higher in the near term. So, today was a booster rocket firing after the lift-off signal in July. This market will most likely go higher. As always I'll stay tuned but the markets are traditionally considered " leading indicators " and - for now - the Dow and the Transports like whatever it is they are seeing ahead. Pushing through 9,600 now puts us in a position to be looking at 10,350ish - the mark of the 50% Principle I mentioned yesterday. My o

A Rare Dow Theory Signal

I said back on July 23 that I plan to be out of the market by October. Of course, plans can change. I'm always open to new information. But today something very rare happened and the time to exit the market (except for my positions in gold) might be fast approaching. Back on August 27 the Dow hit its most recent highest high of 9580.63 but the Transports refused to match their most recent highest high. So, we had a classic Dow Theory non-confirmation. Not a big deal really. It just signaled caution. Today the reverse happened, however. The Transports closed at 3806.75, a new high for the rally but the Dow closed at 9547.22, below their previous August 27 high. On his site tonight Richard Russell said he has only seen this "three times before in the last 60 years." He goes on... "This is what I call a rare 'double non-confirmation.' First, the Transports were weak in that they could not confirm the Industrials . Today the Industrials were weak in that they c

Gaming Iraq - 1941

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Several weeks ago I spent some evenings playing John Tiller’s latest PC wargame, War on the Southern Front . It features a lot of campaigns that I have read very little about. The German invasions of Yugoslavia and Greece , as well as the campaigns for North Africa and Sicily . I was predominantly gaming the Gazala scenario, a huge victory historically for Rommel’s famed Afrika Korps . Tiller’s game models the biggest problem of the operation very well – supply. It was only by a tenuous thread indeed that German/Italian forces were able to out duel capable (but largely mismanaged) British and Commonwealth troops in the desert around Tobruk in 1942. Armored units don’t travel very far without fuel. I’ve always appreciated operational wargames that realistically feature logistics and supply as a reality curbing the appetite of any military endeavor. My wargaming usually goes hand-in-hand with some reading on whatever subject is covered in the game. I don’t have much on North Africa