Friday, October 9, 2009

The Prize, Non-Confirmation

Surprising, almost shocking news, today. Obama wins the Nobel Peace Prize. All sorts of opinion about this. Some say he deserves it but now he must earn it. Some think it's absurd. Obama himself wants to accept it "on behalf of aspirations."

I think there's a chance the prize (
the only one of all the Nobel prizes to be given by Norway, all others by Sweden) is a bold attempt to keep Obama from necessarily (in my opinion) escalating the war in Afghanistan. To keep him from committing 40,000 more US troops to the troubled region. Maybe I'm being too cynical or shallow. But, it's almost a bribe or a dogie treat. Down boy.

The strange thing about it is that I work and interact with many bright people who take an interest in the news and today not one single person talked to me or emailed me about the award to Obama. This rather unprecedented historical honor, right or wrongly given, doesn't merit any discussion, not even a simple utterance of acknowledgement.

About 9am Jennifer phoned me at my desk and wanted to know if I had seen the news. I told her I had. She and I discussed it briefly. Other than that, stone silence from everyone I know.

I suspect the silence reflects a deep-seated prejudice of which few of us are even aware. The prejudice is in me, even though I think Obama has worked wonders with US foreign policy since the disastrous era of George W. Bush. Surely there is someone more deserving of the recognition somewhere on this earth. People are dying for peace, literally dying, and the award goes to a political phenomenon, a global rock star.

Meanwhile, we now have a big, fat Dow Theory non-confirmation today.
The Dow hit a new high for this rally. The Dow Transportation Index remains about 140 points below it's most recent high. The Transports have been very week recently, especially compared with the Industrials. This signals trouble ahead if the Transports refuse to rise to a new high next week. I said originally I planned to be out by October. I'm still in. But, I'm thinking of closing my DIA and SPY positions, effectively leaving me in gold and gold stocks as far as stuff outside my 401(k). I'll see what Monday brings. Gold is looking very strong and I have a big position in it. Ride the Bull, dodge the bear. The usual coin toss.

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