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Showing posts from January, 2011

GLD is a Buy

GLD was a buy at the close today at a little over $130/share. It is a good time to add more to the portfolio. Of course, it could be a losing play, but I'm betting that it isn't. The charting system I use during bull markets doesn't predict absolute bottoms or absolute tops. Any system that claims absolute insight in market timing is a lie. But, my system gets in the neighborhood. Six months ago I bought more GLD at $118/share. It ended up going lower to about $113 over the next week or two. Today that dollar difference doesn't seem like a big deal. I could be wrong but I don't think it will make much difference this time either. GLD reached an oversold condition on all three of my primary indicators today. The Slow Stochastics was below 10 (at 6.89), the RSI was below 50 (at 35.1), and the MACD was negative (at -0.98). This is the soup I have always used to determine entry points in a bull market. So, this marks a buying opportunity for GLD, even as hedge funds a

The Morris Theorem and Beyond

Ian Morris presents an entertaining, informative, and in some ways provocative interpretation of the past several millennia of human history, recent stuff in the grand scheme of things. I finished his new book on the subject last week. It is well worth the read even though I don’t agree with Professor Morris on some key points. His metaphysical narrative can be simplistically summarized as follows: the driving force in human history is the unique capacity for the social development of our species. Chiefly, our species has adapted and mastered its environment through “ the Morris Theorem ”. Morris writes: “Greedy, lazy, and frightened people seek their own preferred balance among being comfortable, working as little as possible, and being safe.” (page 28) In conjunction with these three forces in human history there must be mixed other hyper-factors beyond the effects of direct social development; namely, famine, migration, disease, and climate change. These factors, working chaotical

My Gaming Table

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My wargame table is situated beside my study area. Years ago Jennifer and I lived more modestly. An evolution was necessitated in my wargaming hobby while we occupied a very small basement apartment. We lived there about four years. This was when all my wargaming was board wargaming . The digital assistants and PC wargames didn’t exist yet. Typically, I placed my wargames under a thin sheet of Plexiglas to keep them steady and flat. At the time we had two cats. Whenever I play any board wargame, it usually remains set up for several weeks, if not months. In our first house, I kept my games behind a shut door so the cats wouldn’t go waltzing across the game map(s) and mess up all of my carefully positioned pieces and markers. Cats being cats, that happened accidentally a couple of times anyway. But, when we landed in the basement apartment, not only was it impossible to keep the cats away but we really didn’t have the space to accommodate my wargames. Bummer. Out of necessity, Jennife

1/11/11

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This is the chart for GLD since October 2010. It could signal an impending bearish reversal. It could be just working off an extended overbought condition. Since I hold a lot of it and am doing nothing I guess I'm betting in the long-term the latter will be the case. This chart was created at bigcharts.com . Well, I won't get to blog this date many times in my life. I wasn't around the last time this happened, in 1911. Maybe I'll be around in 2111. Long odds on that one though. Another snow day, er, work day at home. The roads were still pretty slick this morning so I figured I would go in about 10- ish . But, I wasn't going anywhere until somebody else told me I wouldn't be alone when I got there. Our support department transferred all lines to various cell phones and decided to work from their numerous homes. That tipped the president's hand and he gave a R ah -R ah email about "Let's make the most of this time" and "we'll be open

Snow Day

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Jennifer's Caddy in front of our house today. We got a little over 4 inches of snow early this morning. It fell after midnight and I was actually a little surprised to see so much of it this morning at 6:45. I waited around for awhile, drank coffee, and logged into work. Not much out there. One of my employees phoned to say she would be late today. Her voice message was in my email. I waited until it was daylight enough then walked down my driveway to the road. The snow was powdery, made a nice dry crunch, and was easy to walk in. Its texture was such that you couldn't make much of a snowman. It was deep enough to cover my boots. They got about 6 inches of snow just ten miles or so north of us. As I walked down the drive I noticed that it was completely, totally, and utterly quiet. There was no wind, no motors, no dogs, nothing. Stillness. I could see my breath. The road was slushy but drive-able. I ate breakfast, changed into my old-fashioned overalls and let my old Subaru war

The Great Mongol Horde

About 60,000 years ago human beings were migrating out of Africa and discovering the landmass of the Earth. They (we) fanned out into India and China and the Middle East and the Mediterranean Sea. They did not move too far north, except for a few probes by groups of people. One such probe crossed a frozen wasteland now known as the Bering Sea and came into the Americas. But, that group (or collection of groups), like most of humanity left in deeper Africa, didn’t account for much of world history until more recent times. The peoples that most affected humanity and the Earth centered themselves in the aforementioned four geographic areas of the landmass. In these places the first great civilizations rose and fell for thousands of years as agricultural prowess evolved along with such things as canal building and wall construction for fortified cities and large temples and palaces. Such things as war, famine, disease, climate change (more specifically climate change within the context o

Great Eighths

Note: Picking up where I left off last July with my series on Great Symphonies. I plan four more posts in the series counting this one. But, I don’t necessarily intend to finish them on a monthly basis. There’s no hurry. When it comes to Great Eighth Symphonies one towers among all other contenders. The “Unfinished” Symphony (1822) by Franz Schubert is one of the great musical wonders of the world. Schubert is certainly one of the greatest composers to ever live, so it seems surprising that I have not mentioned him before now. His lively Fifth Symphony was in contention back when I posted on at subject last May. But, ultimately it didn’t win out over the other tough competitors I chose to include. Schubert composed a great deal of chamber music that I enjoy, particularly trios, several marvelous string quartets, and the famous “Trout” Quintet . Schubert wrote his Great Eighth when he was only 25 years old. It is simply mind-blowing (and a tribute to his commanding talent) that he pr

Gold, Regrets, and Some of My Resolutions

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From marketwatch.com at the close of business yesterday. Gold and Silver did fine. Stocks had a good year too. My GLD and SLV positions did very well in 2010. Gold itself began the year right at $1100/ounce and ended over $1400 , a record at both ends. Jennifer and I bought SLV awhile back, though it is but a quarter of our overall GLD position. Naturally, I wish I had more . One New Year’s resolution is to watch SLV more closely in 2011 . Another entry point might present itself. About half of our position is in cash and, unfortunately, I was wrong about the stock markets in 2010 . The Dow (+11%), the NASDAQ (+17%), and the S&P (+13%) all preformed decently while word of improving unemployment claims , other positive economic news , and Ben Bernanke’s fiscal policy lifted the markets beginning in September . I have to admit I think Bernanke is wrong – you cannot generate wealth by essentially printing more money and growing the public debt - but you can’t argue that he’s been ri