10 Games Left: Time for the 'Baby Braves' to Grow Up
Going into today the 2018 Atlanta Braves are sitting atop the NL East Division with a record of 84-68 after defeating the St. Louis Cardinals 7-3. They have a 5-game lead over the second-place Philadelphia Phillies with only 10 reguler season games to play. That is ordinarily a commanding lead, especially since over the past 10 games the Phillies have been playing worse than the Braves.
But, after rattling off a season-high 6-game winning streak, the Braves lost four in a row while the Phillies won a couple. So the lead shrank from seven games to five in the blink of an eye. What's more, the Braves play the Phillies seven times in the last 10 games. So anything is still possible. If the Atlanta collapses against Philadelphia then they will not make the postseason. If the Braves can just split the seven games, say, 4-3 then that will pretty much ensures our division title. (There are also three games against the New York Mets that complicate things a bit.)
We have sort of been here before, under slightly different circumstances, in 2010. See posts here and here for all that. We had a chance to win the division then but ended up as the wild-card team. This year the wild-card is not really an option, at least as of this posting. While we had the best record in the National League earlier, as of today we have only the fifth-best record. Not good enough for serious wild-card consideration given the records of other wild-card contending teams.
So it is all or nothing. We are in the driver's seat, controlling our own destiny. But there is some reason for concern.
First of all, we have four game against the Phillies at home. The Braves at 45-30 actually have the best road record in the National League. But they are only 39-38 at home. We haven't played well at SunTrust Park. So it is possible for the Phillies to sweep us over the next four games. That is definitely the worst-case scenario. It would effectively erase our lead over them with only six games left to play. On the other hand if we can split with the series 2-2 with them, then we are still 5 games up on them with only 6 games left. All six of those games are on the road, fortunately, the last three in Philadelphia. With our road prowess being what it is I feel pretty good about our chances. But we have to win a few games at home first!
What do we have going for us? We a lot in terms of batting, at least. Ronald Acuna, Jr. has a hot bat and is a serious rookie-of-the-year candidate. Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis are both having great seasons at the plate. Overall, the Braves are 3rd in team batting average at .259. That is a far cry from the .268 they started the season with, but it's still in the elite category.
Our pitching is another story. A recent game against the best team in baseball, the Boston Red Sox, exemplifies the issue. With a commanding 7-1 lead going into the 8th inning, the Braves bullpen showed its ugly side and we ended up losing that game 9-8. Just horrible, but that's baseball. Currently, we are a very mediocre 12th in team ERA at 3.80. If you compare team bullpens we are inadequate for a playoff contender. Our starters, with a few noteworthy exceptions, have not performed well, especially in the past few games. Pitching is the bane of the Braves in 2018.
Still, here we are, in first place with a meager 10 games remaining. The first four are at home against the Phillies and that worries me. But the rest are away against the Mets and the Phillies. The odds are still in our favor to win our first division title since 2013. That feels good even if we are not playing our best of late. Beating the Phillies three out of the next four games will seal the deal for the Braves and allow us to rest some of our key players before the postseason begins. But, playing at home, strangely makes that a problematic feat this year.
Unless we catch fire, our number of wins will probably mean we will not have home-field advantage in the postseason. But that is actually a plus. As I mentioned, we play much better on the road. We could make things interesting by winning a game or two away against whoever we end up playing (it would be the Los Angeles Dodgers as of right now). But I am not expecting to survive the first round due to our often lackluster pitching. Still, it's better than not going to the playoffs at all. The 2018 season has been exciting overall for the 'baby Braves.' I was just hoping the magic of earlier in the season would last into September. So far, that's not consistently been the case.
But, after rattling off a season-high 6-game winning streak, the Braves lost four in a row while the Phillies won a couple. So the lead shrank from seven games to five in the blink of an eye. What's more, the Braves play the Phillies seven times in the last 10 games. So anything is still possible. If the Atlanta collapses against Philadelphia then they will not make the postseason. If the Braves can just split the seven games, say, 4-3 then that will pretty much ensures our division title. (There are also three games against the New York Mets that complicate things a bit.)
We have sort of been here before, under slightly different circumstances, in 2010. See posts here and here for all that. We had a chance to win the division then but ended up as the wild-card team. This year the wild-card is not really an option, at least as of this posting. While we had the best record in the National League earlier, as of today we have only the fifth-best record. Not good enough for serious wild-card consideration given the records of other wild-card contending teams.
So it is all or nothing. We are in the driver's seat, controlling our own destiny. But there is some reason for concern.
First of all, we have four game against the Phillies at home. The Braves at 45-30 actually have the best road record in the National League. But they are only 39-38 at home. We haven't played well at SunTrust Park. So it is possible for the Phillies to sweep us over the next four games. That is definitely the worst-case scenario. It would effectively erase our lead over them with only six games left to play. On the other hand if we can split with the series 2-2 with them, then we are still 5 games up on them with only 6 games left. All six of those games are on the road, fortunately, the last three in Philadelphia. With our road prowess being what it is I feel pretty good about our chances. But we have to win a few games at home first!
What do we have going for us? We a lot in terms of batting, at least. Ronald Acuna, Jr. has a hot bat and is a serious rookie-of-the-year candidate. Freddie Freeman and Nick Markakis are both having great seasons at the plate. Overall, the Braves are 3rd in team batting average at .259. That is a far cry from the .268 they started the season with, but it's still in the elite category.
Our pitching is another story. A recent game against the best team in baseball, the Boston Red Sox, exemplifies the issue. With a commanding 7-1 lead going into the 8th inning, the Braves bullpen showed its ugly side and we ended up losing that game 9-8. Just horrible, but that's baseball. Currently, we are a very mediocre 12th in team ERA at 3.80. If you compare team bullpens we are inadequate for a playoff contender. Our starters, with a few noteworthy exceptions, have not performed well, especially in the past few games. Pitching is the bane of the Braves in 2018.
Still, here we are, in first place with a meager 10 games remaining. The first four are at home against the Phillies and that worries me. But the rest are away against the Mets and the Phillies. The odds are still in our favor to win our first division title since 2013. That feels good even if we are not playing our best of late. Beating the Phillies three out of the next four games will seal the deal for the Braves and allow us to rest some of our key players before the postseason begins. But, playing at home, strangely makes that a problematic feat this year.
Unless we catch fire, our number of wins will probably mean we will not have home-field advantage in the postseason. But that is actually a plus. As I mentioned, we play much better on the road. We could make things interesting by winning a game or two away against whoever we end up playing (it would be the Los Angeles Dodgers as of right now). But I am not expecting to survive the first round due to our often lackluster pitching. Still, it's better than not going to the playoffs at all. The 2018 season has been exciting overall for the 'baby Braves.' I was just hoping the magic of earlier in the season would last into September. So far, that's not consistently been the case.
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