Parsing Out Dystopia: Part One - COVID-19
We are living in historic times, to say the least. A lot of mental and emotional energy is being burned up worrying over a host of global and interpersonal problems. I don’t know anyone outside of canines and kids who are carefree any more. So why not embrace that big wad of anxiety and wade deep into the muck of it with some musings?
I’ve been meaning to post about the COVID-19 Pandemic for awhile, but haven’t known quite what to say. I have a magazine on Flipboard devoted to the topic if you care to peruse. Of course, the economy and stock market have been a longtime consideration for me on this blog but I haven’t posted anything about the most recent crash yet either.
The problem is wrapping (or warping) my head around all of this…and the new oil war…and the proxy war between America and Iran inside Iraq…and our record-setting global warming…and…well, a bunch of stuff. Yesterday, randomly, I landed on a thought about “the singularity.”
For decades, there has been a group of scientists, transhumanists, futurists, etc. who believe (this is a "belief," there is no evidence it will happen) that humanity is headed toward a moment in history when advances in artificial intelligence, robotics, genetics, nanotechnology and many other scientific disciplines will reach a sort of tipping point. They will gloriously, synergistically coalesce into a golden era, a new and greater enlightenment that will take the human race to a level of greatness, health, wealth and satisfaction that has never been known before.
I first read about the singularity in the late 1980’s when I was employed in the banking industry. Back then, some of those proclaiming the coming singularity targeted the year 2032 as when this grand convergence would occur. I was impressed and inspired at the possibility. I thought I should start taking better care of myself so that I would be as “young” as possible to take full advantage of opportunities when the singularity happened.
A more disciplined exercise regiment, recommitment to yoga, a healthier diet, and taking a lot of supplements with emphasis on multiple antioxidants were all part of my strategy. I will be 72 when 2032 arrives but I knew it was possible for my body and mind to feel much younger than that if I took proper care of myself. I have never regretted that decision. I am near 61 today and I have not suffered from sickness, not even a cold, in at least 20 years. So, if nothing else, the idea of the singularity has already inspired me to live a healthier life.
Since then scientists like Ray Kurzweil have pushed the projected date back to 2045. Well, that kinda sucks. I’ll be going on 86 then, assuming I live that long. Certainly the healthy habits I’ve developed over the years give me a better chance of getting there. But how much the singularity will benefit someone in their mid-80’s seems questionable to me. It is like a great carrot on the end of a stick leading me along. I might not ever get there, after all. But, hey, no harm in trying, no?
And I remain committed to living healthy as long as possible. Let the chips fall where they may. Anyway, yesterday, with all that’s happening in the world more or less simultaneously now, the idea struck me that there is absolutely no reason to believe that the singularity (which is, as I said, completely based on "scientific faith") has to be a new golden era. What if the singularity, instead, is the harbinger of a new dark age?
What if human innovation does not amalgamate into something unexpectedly wonderful but, rather, the combination of global warming, pandemics, war, greed, corporate and government surveillance and so on brings forth a dystopian reality instead? Why do we always assume that the convergence of forces will bring about a better world?
It is a useful question to pose, though certainly a unsettling one to reflect upon. It is easier and more fun to suppose my brain will be uploaded into a silicon device and I will trade in my tired old carbon self for an immortal computerized self. But yesterday, reflecting mostly upon the stock market crash, global warming, and the current pandemic, it felt more like all of these things would merge into something less appealing. As Nietzsche more or less said, “There’s no reason why truth can’t be the most troubling thing we can possibly know. It is rather childish to assume that it will be pleasant just because we need it to be that way.”
The next asteroid/comet that hits the Earth doesn't care about what we need.
Then I thought back to the unease I felt when I read Thoreau in January. To the way I related to Lovecraft when I read Innsmouth in February. This year has felt different to me, so far. Why is that? I have plenty of interests to enjoy. I have discovered fresh art and music, spent more time basking in the simple wonder of nature around me, read some really good books, I remain healthy and interested in the world. I still possess a sense of wonder about life, so crucial to anyone’s well-being. Am I the one inventing dystopia out of the tea leaves of life? Or is there something wrong with the world itself? Maybe it is a little bit of both.
So, today I have decided that the singularity no longer interests me. Though I will continue with the healthy habits that were founded by my original belief in its possibility, I won’t give the singularity itself another serious thought. Whatever happens happens. There. Now what?
One of the cornerstones of human anxiety is our tendency to lump everything together. Kurzweil believes that AI and nanotech and a bunch of other things will make one great big beautiful thing. It could just as easily turn out that viruses and climate change will combine into something terrifying for us all. But that is because we tend to think of all these various forces as possessing some sort of cohesion when, in fact, they do not. They are all separate and their synergistic aspects are mostly figments of our imagination, of our need for patterns and organization. The truth is the novel coronavirus and the oil production war and the coming of the Anthropocene have little to do with one another.
Instead of looking for or waiting for a so-called "singularity" it is far better parse out these individual challenges and possibilities into what they really are – separate effects within the complex world. From the perspective of anxiety, it is more productive to untangle the fur ball of influences and address each on its own terms.
So, let’s start with the BIG one of the moment, COVID-19. I won’t go into the story of it so far because that is readily available in my virtual magazine and all over the internet and the news. Instead I want to talk about a specific source of anxiety as I see it – the fear caused by the (for whatever reason) pathetic early response to the spread of it in the United States.
The simple issue is this: there was no massive testing of the population early on (and there still isn’t today) so the CDC or Johns Hopkins or anyone else really has no idea how many cases are walking around in America. This is a huge unknown. There are wildly varying estimates. Some say as many as 70% of the US population will contract it (if no treatment is found). Others place the number more modestly in the few thousands. Who is right? We don’t know.
But what we do know is the number of deaths due to the coronavirus in the United States. (Unless, of course, you want to get really crazy and contend people are dying in the US without being classified as having the virus. On that I call bullshit.) As of this posting there have been 54 deaths in the USA due to COVID-19 out of 2,726 reported cases (according to this excellent interactive map powered by Johns Hopkins). That is a morality rate of about 2%. That jibes with the global death rate of about 2.5% at the moment, though, once again, the exact percentage is debatable and could be as high as 4%.
The criticism of the Trump administration and the CDC response to the virus basically revolves around the lack of early testing from the beginning right on up until today. The basis for this criticism and the possible relevance of the critique is that “it's just everywhere already.” Essentially, and anxiously I might add, thousands of infected people are walking around the US infecting others and we don’t know it yet. Pretty scary thought.
I can choose to let this theoretical fact terrify me into hoarding toilet paper or I can say, wait a minute, if that’s really happening what will the results be? The incubation period is a subject of some debate too with numbers that I’ve seen varying between 5 days, 11.5 days, and 14 days. For the sake of math let’s say 10 days. A person could come into contact with the virus and not show symptoms for a week and a half. After that week and a half, symptoms will develop and soon 2% – 4% of those who have it will die.
So it should be fairly easy to confirm or disprove the argument that “it is already everywhere.” The Governor of Ohio has stated already that 100,000 people have it in that state, which would be astonishing since only 150,000 presently have it in the entire world. Another “expert” said up to 500,000 Americans currently have it. Let’s go with that wild-assed figure and assume for a moment that over three times as many Americans have it as reportedly have it in the entire world. It seems absurd but let’s run with it.
That means that roughly by the end of March about 100,000 people will flood the hospitals of this nation with severe symptoms and survive by severely straining our healthcare system. Moreover, between 10,000 and 20,000 Americans will die from the virus probably sometime in April. We don’t know this yet because the Trump administration botched early testing, for which he blames Obama, of course. Jesus! Now, I am no Trump fan but these figures are catastrophic and hard to take seriously.
If anything like this is going to happen in the near future we should see a gigantic spike in the reported numbers, especially the reported deaths by the end of this month. We know there will be a spike because that is how the virus played out in China and how it is currently playing out in Iran and Italy (where the death rate is more than triple the global average!). If I don’t see local hospitals reaching capacity and, say, 600 to 1,000 people dead from this virus in the US by the end of March then I will know that all this anxiety about early testing and about the virus is "already everywhere" and about 100,000 have it in Ohio was a bunch of alarmist bullshit. On the other hand, if I do see this happening, I will take even greater precautions than I do today and will socially distance myself from the new dystopian world. Hell, I was born to be socially distant anyway!
In the meantime I’ll contemplate this instead. In city of Wuhan, China the number of new cases reported is now in the single digits. Businesses are reopening. The worst could be over. There may be another wave of infections or something like that but there’s no evidence of it. I, for one, am going to stop listening to all experts on every side of this issue and look at the freakin’ death numbers. They are the only honesty we have. And honesty is the arch enemy of uncertainty. So, for now, don't worry. Wash your hands and don't touch your face.
We'll see where we are at the end of March. Next on this dystopian anxiety parade, I'll look at the crazy US stock markets.
I’ve been meaning to post about the COVID-19 Pandemic for awhile, but haven’t known quite what to say. I have a magazine on Flipboard devoted to the topic if you care to peruse. Of course, the economy and stock market have been a longtime consideration for me on this blog but I haven’t posted anything about the most recent crash yet either.
The problem is wrapping (or warping) my head around all of this…and the new oil war…and the proxy war between America and Iran inside Iraq…and our record-setting global warming…and…well, a bunch of stuff. Yesterday, randomly, I landed on a thought about “the singularity.”
For decades, there has been a group of scientists, transhumanists, futurists, etc. who believe (this is a "belief," there is no evidence it will happen) that humanity is headed toward a moment in history when advances in artificial intelligence, robotics, genetics, nanotechnology and many other scientific disciplines will reach a sort of tipping point. They will gloriously, synergistically coalesce into a golden era, a new and greater enlightenment that will take the human race to a level of greatness, health, wealth and satisfaction that has never been known before.
I first read about the singularity in the late 1980’s when I was employed in the banking industry. Back then, some of those proclaiming the coming singularity targeted the year 2032 as when this grand convergence would occur. I was impressed and inspired at the possibility. I thought I should start taking better care of myself so that I would be as “young” as possible to take full advantage of opportunities when the singularity happened.
A more disciplined exercise regiment, recommitment to yoga, a healthier diet, and taking a lot of supplements with emphasis on multiple antioxidants were all part of my strategy. I will be 72 when 2032 arrives but I knew it was possible for my body and mind to feel much younger than that if I took proper care of myself. I have never regretted that decision. I am near 61 today and I have not suffered from sickness, not even a cold, in at least 20 years. So, if nothing else, the idea of the singularity has already inspired me to live a healthier life.
Since then scientists like Ray Kurzweil have pushed the projected date back to 2045. Well, that kinda sucks. I’ll be going on 86 then, assuming I live that long. Certainly the healthy habits I’ve developed over the years give me a better chance of getting there. But how much the singularity will benefit someone in their mid-80’s seems questionable to me. It is like a great carrot on the end of a stick leading me along. I might not ever get there, after all. But, hey, no harm in trying, no?
And I remain committed to living healthy as long as possible. Let the chips fall where they may. Anyway, yesterday, with all that’s happening in the world more or less simultaneously now, the idea struck me that there is absolutely no reason to believe that the singularity (which is, as I said, completely based on "scientific faith") has to be a new golden era. What if the singularity, instead, is the harbinger of a new dark age?
What if human innovation does not amalgamate into something unexpectedly wonderful but, rather, the combination of global warming, pandemics, war, greed, corporate and government surveillance and so on brings forth a dystopian reality instead? Why do we always assume that the convergence of forces will bring about a better world?
It is a useful question to pose, though certainly a unsettling one to reflect upon. It is easier and more fun to suppose my brain will be uploaded into a silicon device and I will trade in my tired old carbon self for an immortal computerized self. But yesterday, reflecting mostly upon the stock market crash, global warming, and the current pandemic, it felt more like all of these things would merge into something less appealing. As Nietzsche more or less said, “There’s no reason why truth can’t be the most troubling thing we can possibly know. It is rather childish to assume that it will be pleasant just because we need it to be that way.”
The next asteroid/comet that hits the Earth doesn't care about what we need.
Then I thought back to the unease I felt when I read Thoreau in January. To the way I related to Lovecraft when I read Innsmouth in February. This year has felt different to me, so far. Why is that? I have plenty of interests to enjoy. I have discovered fresh art and music, spent more time basking in the simple wonder of nature around me, read some really good books, I remain healthy and interested in the world. I still possess a sense of wonder about life, so crucial to anyone’s well-being. Am I the one inventing dystopia out of the tea leaves of life? Or is there something wrong with the world itself? Maybe it is a little bit of both.
So, today I have decided that the singularity no longer interests me. Though I will continue with the healthy habits that were founded by my original belief in its possibility, I won’t give the singularity itself another serious thought. Whatever happens happens. There. Now what?
One of the cornerstones of human anxiety is our tendency to lump everything together. Kurzweil believes that AI and nanotech and a bunch of other things will make one great big beautiful thing. It could just as easily turn out that viruses and climate change will combine into something terrifying for us all. But that is because we tend to think of all these various forces as possessing some sort of cohesion when, in fact, they do not. They are all separate and their synergistic aspects are mostly figments of our imagination, of our need for patterns and organization. The truth is the novel coronavirus and the oil production war and the coming of the Anthropocene have little to do with one another.
Instead of looking for or waiting for a so-called "singularity" it is far better parse out these individual challenges and possibilities into what they really are – separate effects within the complex world. From the perspective of anxiety, it is more productive to untangle the fur ball of influences and address each on its own terms.
So, let’s start with the BIG one of the moment, COVID-19. I won’t go into the story of it so far because that is readily available in my virtual magazine and all over the internet and the news. Instead I want to talk about a specific source of anxiety as I see it – the fear caused by the (for whatever reason) pathetic early response to the spread of it in the United States.
The simple issue is this: there was no massive testing of the population early on (and there still isn’t today) so the CDC or Johns Hopkins or anyone else really has no idea how many cases are walking around in America. This is a huge unknown. There are wildly varying estimates. Some say as many as 70% of the US population will contract it (if no treatment is found). Others place the number more modestly in the few thousands. Who is right? We don’t know.
But what we do know is the number of deaths due to the coronavirus in the United States. (Unless, of course, you want to get really crazy and contend people are dying in the US without being classified as having the virus. On that I call bullshit.) As of this posting there have been 54 deaths in the USA due to COVID-19 out of 2,726 reported cases (according to this excellent interactive map powered by Johns Hopkins). That is a morality rate of about 2%. That jibes with the global death rate of about 2.5% at the moment, though, once again, the exact percentage is debatable and could be as high as 4%.
The criticism of the Trump administration and the CDC response to the virus basically revolves around the lack of early testing from the beginning right on up until today. The basis for this criticism and the possible relevance of the critique is that “it's just everywhere already.” Essentially, and anxiously I might add, thousands of infected people are walking around the US infecting others and we don’t know it yet. Pretty scary thought.
I can choose to let this theoretical fact terrify me into hoarding toilet paper or I can say, wait a minute, if that’s really happening what will the results be? The incubation period is a subject of some debate too with numbers that I’ve seen varying between 5 days, 11.5 days, and 14 days. For the sake of math let’s say 10 days. A person could come into contact with the virus and not show symptoms for a week and a half. After that week and a half, symptoms will develop and soon 2% – 4% of those who have it will die.
So it should be fairly easy to confirm or disprove the argument that “it is already everywhere.” The Governor of Ohio has stated already that 100,000 people have it in that state, which would be astonishing since only 150,000 presently have it in the entire world. Another “expert” said up to 500,000 Americans currently have it. Let’s go with that wild-assed figure and assume for a moment that over three times as many Americans have it as reportedly have it in the entire world. It seems absurd but let’s run with it.
That means that roughly by the end of March about 100,000 people will flood the hospitals of this nation with severe symptoms and survive by severely straining our healthcare system. Moreover, between 10,000 and 20,000 Americans will die from the virus probably sometime in April. We don’t know this yet because the Trump administration botched early testing, for which he blames Obama, of course. Jesus! Now, I am no Trump fan but these figures are catastrophic and hard to take seriously.
If anything like this is going to happen in the near future we should see a gigantic spike in the reported numbers, especially the reported deaths by the end of this month. We know there will be a spike because that is how the virus played out in China and how it is currently playing out in Iran and Italy (where the death rate is more than triple the global average!). If I don’t see local hospitals reaching capacity and, say, 600 to 1,000 people dead from this virus in the US by the end of March then I will know that all this anxiety about early testing and about the virus is "already everywhere" and about 100,000 have it in Ohio was a bunch of alarmist bullshit. On the other hand, if I do see this happening, I will take even greater precautions than I do today and will socially distance myself from the new dystopian world. Hell, I was born to be socially distant anyway!
In the meantime I’ll contemplate this instead. In city of Wuhan, China the number of new cases reported is now in the single digits. Businesses are reopening. The worst could be over. There may be another wave of infections or something like that but there’s no evidence of it. I, for one, am going to stop listening to all experts on every side of this issue and look at the freakin’ death numbers. They are the only honesty we have. And honesty is the arch enemy of uncertainty. So, for now, don't worry. Wash your hands and don't touch your face.
We'll see where we are at the end of March. Next on this dystopian anxiety parade, I'll look at the crazy US stock markets.
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