Parsing Out Dystopia: Passing 75,000 Dead

May 7.

We passed 75,000 dead in America from COVID-19 today.  The numbers don't seem to faze Americans much anymore. At one point in April we lost 20,000 in 7 days.  We hit 50,000 on April 24.  Now the daily rates are falling.  It took us 13 days for another 25,000 to die, about 1,900 per day.

People are protesting at various state capitols to reopen the economy.  Some governors are at odds with big city mayors over the timing of things.  I guess we will see how it all turns out.

So far, the overall trend in new cases is generally downward, but the "peak" (so far) actually occurred about two weeks later than he proclaimed; a reflection of more wishful thinking on his part.  Many people feel that the easing of social distancing too early will bring about a second wave of virus infections that will send death rates higher again.

It's all politics.  The liberals say we need to remain shut down to save lives.  The conservatives say we need to let people back to work to save the economy.  Everybody seems to be yelling and no one seems to be listening.  

I am tired of all the bipolar rage.  The numbers will tell us if this is the right thing to do or not.  There's no need to argue about what the numbers will show.  There is tremendous need for everyone to let go of their preconceptions and fears and face the facts.  As I said, so far the evidence shows the virus is diminishing in America.

Generally speaking, I'm a States' Rights kind of guy.  I think that diversified government is dynamic and that centralized government is myopic.  We are witnessing this country respond to the pandemic in a diversified way.  Some states will do a crappy job of handling the situation.  Some will do an exceptional job.  Hopefully, we will all learn from this great experiment in Federalism.

Areas where a centralized approach to government works better include matter pertaining to the environment, resource scarcity, and national emergencies.  We will see if allowing the governors handle this extraordinary situation is the best approach.  If it is, then Federalism wins.  If it isn't, then we need to rethink our approach in the future.  A national emergency is national.  So this might be beyond the limit of what the states are capable of addressing.


Will the virus go away entirely?  Not likely.  Trump was wrong (again) to say one day it will "miraculously" disappear.  And that was supposed to happen in Aprils according to our "stable genius" thug of a president.  China is still struggling with new cases every day but the number is manageable.  My guess is the worst is over, for now, but there will be a resurgence in the fall. 

How will this country handle COVID-19 for Christmas?   I fear the answer is extremism and violence to accompany the pandemic, a true dystopian normality.

But that is not what the stock markets think.  They have recovered from their acutely oversold position and have, for the moment, plateaued.   The Dow has not only held the critical 22,000 support level (after falling to 19,000) but it is looking solidly above it at the moment.  That is an impressive sign of strength.

The Dow has recovered back to its 50-day Moving Average from its March low.  A sign of strength, though still well off its February high.  This chart does not scream "recession" yet.

Locally, people I know in the flooring and dry wall business tell me things are still steady, meaning housing construction remains viable if not strong.  It does not look like a recession in housing yet.

Jennifer and I are taking advantage of this new virtual reality we all live in and will attend a lengthy financial seminar put together by John Mauldin featuring a lot of investment gurus and economists; 25-hours of speakers and material over a 10-day period starting Monday.  

Normally, conferences like this are held at expensive resorts and are costly to attend.  But, being virtual makes it easy and affordable.  Perhaps this is one of the benefits of our new dystopian reality.  No one physically meets any more.  Everything is more accessible when it is virtual.   I'm still hoping to make some money through investments off of this situation.

Shifting gears, not many people noticed that 75 years ago today was VE Day, when World War Two ended in Europe for the United States and the western allies.  We are all distracted.  The past does not speak to us and the future is murky.

It looks like the US is in a general declining trend for new cases, which is what we want to see.  It will be interesting to see if this trend continues as various states start to "reopen."