Parsing Out Dystopia: Two Wars Worlds Apart – Ukraine

Long-time readers know I am a big military history and wargame enthusiast.  I have posted many times about warfare and games.  So, it might seem strange that I have not mentioned the Russo-Ukraine War until now.  It is, in every sense, a modern conventional war, fought in traditional and irregular means happening right before my eyes.

But my silence does not mean I haven't been watching.  I devote a magazine to the topic on Flipboard entitled Putin's Ukraine Gambit.  My initial reaction to Putin's decision was “has he lost his mind?”  (Yes he has, see video here.) Trump called it a “genius” move.  The Kremlin planned to capture the capital of Kyiv in a lightning campaign that would last a few days.  

It is difficult to determine what NATO's reaction would have been had the war ended in, say, two weeks.  If Ukraine's government had collapsed in that short amount of time, NATO would have been helpless to do more than radically reinforce eastern Europe.  Ukraine would become Russian the way Crimea did back in 2014.  No wider war would have been fought.  This was the “genius” aspect that Trump thought he saw coming.

But that's not what happened.  Ukraine kicked ass with their anti-tank missiles and small infantry tactics against the larger, better equipped Russian army.  Russian air power was severely curtailed by anti-air missiles.  In fact, it was mainly missiles of all types provided early on that allowed Ukraine to be so effective.  They neutralized Russian armor within a couple of weeks.  Because of NATO aid and Ukrainian skill, Russia was losing more aircraft and tanks than they could replace, reflecting a decades-long system of inefficiency and corruption.  

The missiles and the small unit tactics denied Putin of his main objective.  Kyiv (which, until the war, I called Kiev) was supposed to fall quickly but instead it was not captured at all.  A few Russians made it to the outskirts but Ukraine controlled the front line everywhere else around the city.  The Russians withdrew to avoid being cut off by Ukrainian counterattacks.  Kyiv would not be so closely threatened again.

Meanwhile, the Russians were more successful in the easternmost provinces of Ukraine.  They overran large swaths of land in spite of fierce resistance and soon bogged down after taking regions of Ukraine that were “separatist” and pro-Russian.  The further they attempted to push on into the Ukraine the slower their advance became.  Until it was stopped at the edge of the economically rich Donbas region.

Despite being hammered, Ukraine clearly won this first phase of the war.  It was still in major jeopardy, however.  Russia was shifting troops southward to reinforce the Donbas and to capture the entire region.  Without the Donbas the Ukrainian economy would be severely impacted.  While Ukraine's vast grain exports is a rich source of income for the country, almost all the industrial capacity (employing many more people) would collapse.  But Russian logistics proved to be inadequate for the conduct of the major operations necessary to capture the Donbas.    

Numerous high-profile Russian generals were killed by Ukrainian sharpshooters and even tactical missile attacks.  As the sputtering Russian offensive got going again, Ukraine was receiving serious NATO aid in the form of artillery, tanks, and even aircraft.  The country was a focal point for military advisers from all over the West offering their specialized knowledge to train others on how to fight.  As Russia's army weakened, Ukraine became more powerful.  Russian morale was plummeting.  Many units were already rendered ineffective.

The war became a grind through the summer with both sides making minor gains here and there.  The world was calling this Putin's greatest defeat, an utter debacle.  Severe sanctions, which all but isolated the country from the free world and all its money, choked Russia's economy.  Still, the war remained popular in Russia.  Although thousands protested (and were arrested) against the invasion and hundreds of thousands left the country to avoid conscription into the meatgrinder, over 70% of the Russian population still supported Putin's war effort in the early months.  

And while most of the world shunned Russia, countries like China and India refused to do so, though they were cautious.  Much of Africa remained pro-Russian.  So it wasn't as if the whole world opposed Russia.  North Korea and Iran offered military aid.  The war was far from over despite the fact that the Russian's had already suffered more than 100,000 casualties with Ukraine losing close to that number.  

The war produced a refugee crisis numbering more than 8 million people fleeing to eastern Europe, with another 8 million displaced but still living inside Ukraine.  In a matter of weeks the lives of more than 16 million people were uprooted in mass exodus from their homes.  This taxed Ukraine's infrastructure.  Timely western aid averted any mass hunger or starvation.  Early on, Putin agreed to allow for refugee “corridors” to the west.  Still, these safe roadways were attacked by Russia when it was claimed that NATO was using the corridors to reinforce and resupply Ukrainian resistance.  In addition, Russia relocated about 900,000 eastern Ukrainians inside its border.   

This is the largest single human displacement event in the 21st century, probably the largest since World War Two.  17 million people uprooted.  It is dystopian in its scale.  The fact it can happen today is dystopian.  We live in a world where, at any time, entire regions can be made killing zones forcing everyone from their homes.  This is akin to something from the middle ages happening today.  Refugees were generated on a historic scale and, other than in countries affected, no one really bothered to worry about it much.  That is the most dystopian aspect of it of all, medieval behavior in contemporary times met with apathy by the rest of the globe.  Events quickly took on a strange, business-as-usual quality about them.

With Putin nowhere near defeat, some wondered how long Ukrainian troops, without any rest and recovery, could continue their months-long ordeal of relentless service.  Constant combat slowly degrades the ability to fight, no matter what weapons you are supplied with.  Combat fatigue became a factor for both sides, though the Russians had fresh (but poorly trained) troops to throw into the front line.  The Ukrainians were certainly battle-hardened, but they had no reinforcements to give their weary troops a rest.  Fortunately, large parts of the front line soon had no fighting at all.  In these regions, troops on both sides could recover somewhat.

Nevertheless, in September and October the Ukrainians launched their most impressive counterattacks of the war.  The Russian line collapsed in certain places along the Donbas front.  Ukraine recaptured large sections of formerly confiscated territory, inflicting heavy casualties against Putin's poorly supported, poorly trained, poorly led troops infested with low morale.  For the most part, Ukraine wisely targeted logistical areas, critical rail terminals and supply depots, in order to degrade Russian operational capability.  Deprive an army of its bullets and gas and things will eventually come to a halt.

While the Russian withdrawal from the large city of Kherson was the most newsworthy result of these counterattacks, far more impressive gains were made in the northern regions of the Donbas where the Ukrainians broke through Russian lines and threatened them with encirclement.  Russian counterattacks were futile and, for a few days in these regions, Ukrainian forces blitzed the countryside.  Now they have stalled because the Ukrainians are undoubtedly fatigued and short of supply.  In addition, both sides are dealing with the Russian muddy season now.  Movement becomes restricted by the soft, boggy ground throughout the region.  Until the ground freezes over.  Then it becomes a winter war.

The outcome of this war remains very much in question.  It is easy to say Putin has already lost, but he certainly does not see it that way.  Nor do a great many other countries.  If US aid is specifically cut as part of the future Republican agenda, it could greatly impact Ukraine's capabilities.  While other NATO nations can still supply Ukraine with ample, effective weapons, the US supplied them with the single greatest game-changer on the ground – the HIMARS rocket launch artillery system.  

Back during the summer, when territorial advances were few and both sides attempted to reorganize, the US sent HIMARS and plenty of rockets to Ukraine.  During the middle of July, Ukraine (no doubt with American advisers) started using these long-range systems to hit every major Russian ammunition depot inside Ukraine within the 57-mile range of the rocket launchers.  A phenomenal range for ground-based artillery.

Coordinating with a satellite designed to spot forest fires, the HIMARS could get real-time information on the exact location of each depot.  Virtually all of them were destroyed in a couple of weeks.  HIMARS rockets can have a range up to 200 miles but the US did not supply Ukraine with any of those.  Basically, Ukraine could blast any ammo dump that was on Ukrainian territory occupied by Russia but the US insisted Ukraine commit to not use HIMARS against any targets inside Russia itself.

Even so restricted, this made direct resupply of the front line much more difficult, effectively accomplishing Ukraine's goal to slow down the Russia offensive.  Within a matter of days Russian artillery usage dropped significantly.  If nothing else, this destruction of Russian supply gave the Ukrainians the ability to operate in a less intense environment.  To somewhat recover and regroup.

Also of vital importance to Ukraine is the Starlink connection offered the entire country by Elon Musk.  Musk made a feeble attempt to get compensated for his services.  After all, he owns the satellites and built the company that launched them into space, but the PR of cutting off service was a ridiculous dead end.  He quickly announced that he would continue to provide the service for free.

Without the internet, Ukrainian coordination and communication would be problematic, if not impossible.  Perhaps that is one reason why Putin is now targeting Ukraine's electrical grid.  You can't have internet access if you don't have electricity.  Even more likely and insidious, Putin hopes to demoralize Ukraine this winter by cutting electricity for heat.  These strikes by Russia (both combat jets and missiles) have been devastating.  Recently, millions of Ukrainians were warned to prepare for a long, cold winter.  Whether or not this ploy will negatively impact Ukraine's morale is an open question.  Sometimes this sort of tactic and strengthen the resolve of those impacted.

Beyond the grid, Russia has used its own long-ranged artillery (and a few air strikes) to hit a great deal of critical Ukrainian assets deep inside the country.  Putin's forces are now reinforcing with recruits from a partial mobilization of Russian society.  Tens of thousands of new troops are now filling the Russian ranks.  Once again, Ukraine has no such resource.  By necessity, all their fighters are already deployed.

As the winter comes, both sides prepare for the next phase of the war.  The recent pause in major operations (except for the Russian withdrawal from Kherson, which was due to logistics more than Ukrainian counterattacks) is necessary.  The Russians need to train and improve the effectiveness of their new troops.  The Ukrainians need time to rest and resupply for the next phase whether it happens in the frozen mud or after the thaw next spring.

While Putin's original plans clearly failed and he now finds himself in an enormous geopolitical mess, he is still in this fight.  Russians have proven throughout history of be able to take horrific casualties while continuing to strengthen their forces, to learn and adapt and to overwhelm with stubborn, brutal tenacity.  But the Ukrainians do not lack these resilient qualities either.  Thus far, Ukraine has won every phase of the war.  Putin's victories have been fleeting though he still controls the easternmost portion of the country.

As I said above, my personal reaction of Putin's invasion of a sovereign nation was disbelief, he was acting like a crazy man.  Surely this was not happening.  It seemed surreal in a dystopian way.  Legitimate governments and peoples did not operate like this any more.  Conventional war was a ridiculously bad idea.  Taking over a neighboring country could no longer be tolerated as it was in the middle ages.  No one should try it.  This was the stuff unstable regions of the world dabbled in, not the civilized world.

But Putin did and here we are, in a medieval war fought spectacularly with complex weapons.  Using space technology and precision rockets and missiles, a given meter of ground could be attacked anytime from almost anywhere.  I don't have any idea how this will end other than Putin cannot be allowed to “win” anything.  If Putin gets away with this invasion it will embolden China against Taiwan and will once more legitimize state warfare at the conventional level internationally.  Does this herald a new dark age?  What kind of world do we want to live in?  Dystopia is just as much about medieval behavior applied to today's world as it is about any threat from the future.  The misapplication of the past is supremely dystopian.
 
There are no shortage of news sources for this war, as my e-Magazine suggests.  Detailed coverage is offered almost on the hour.  You will find plenty of excellent videos on YouTube as well.  My go-to source is the Kings and Generals channel, which offers a lot of great videos on military history.  (Their history of the Mongol Empire and Ancient China are particularly noteworthy.)

As of this post they feature 11 videos covering the Russo-Ukraine War mostly in two-week chunks lasting roughly a half-hour.  You will find minute details about specific military units and strategies on both sides, including some of the politics behind the war and a bit about war atrocities committed by both sides as well.  The Russians are accused of killing civilians (among other things).  The Ukrainians are accused of killing Russian troops trying to surrender.  The channel's documentary on the HIMARS is particularly insightful.  I always look forward to their next installment.

Far less coverage is available on another, even deadlier (so far) war, however.  The Brussels Times states over 600,000 people have died in a completely different conflict that most Americans have never heard of.  The bloodiest war on Earth today is not in Ukraine, it is (and has been for about two years) being fought primarily with much more modest weapons (machine guns and RPGs) in and around the Tigray Region of Ethiopia.  Like Putin's Ukraine Gambit my Flipboard mag Notice: Ethiopian Civil War has followed this conflict since it started.

(to be continued)

Late Note:  After I posted this I discovered an excellent article featuring a terrific map of lands in Ukraine seized by Russia some of which were subsequently retaken by Ukrainian forces.  See it here.

Later note:  As reported here by Sky News on the date of this post, ferocious fighting is now taking place in the Donbas region.  The Russians are using human wave tactics to protect a logistical route that is partially cut by the Ukrainians.  According to the report: "These are the most intensive battles...since the war began.  [The Russians are] losing 700 - 800 a day and the Ukrainians are losing a fair number of troops as well, fewer than that.  The Russians are just throwing men in these almost human wave attacks...This is causing them huge losses and they can't sustain those losses...We've seen it in other parts of the world and other times of history.  We never thought we'd see it in Europe in the 21st century."  Sounds dystopian to me.