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Showing posts from April, 2009

Up, Up, and Away?

Catching up on Dow Theory ...Yesterday we got a Dow Theory "buy" signal. Whether this is a bear market rally (likely) or the start of a new bull market (less likely), the short term indicators are that the market will go up. It is a reasonable time to add to a position in DIAs (hopefully with better results than I got in January). Everyone seems to agree. Richard Russell , Jack Schannep , and even Charles Allmon (who is a sage advisor but not a Dow Theorist) all say the market should now rise, though caution is warranted. From a strict charting point of view , however, the technicals are looking rather extended to me. The RSI has been around 60 since March 23 and the MACD is looking peaked out. So, I'm not sure there won't be some kind of at least mild correction to the down side soon. But, that's just me - what do I know. No more DIAs for me though. I might buy more gold , however. It is showing some weakness right now but the support is basically holding

Selling off our future

"Make no mistake. We are selling off our future and the future of our children to prevent the bondholders of US financial corporations from taking losses. We are using public funds to protect bondholders of some of the most mismanaged companies in the history of capitalism, instead of allowing them to take losses that should have been their own." - John Hussman 's market comments yesterday.

Spirea

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The recent few years of drought took its toll on a variety of plants on our land. We lost about 70% of our dogwoods, for example. Our spirea also suffered. Late last summer they were pretty much burnt up, with long leafless branches standing out like brittle spikes. This winter and spring has been wet, however, and many plants have recovered, especially the spirea - though it will take a bit more time for them to return to their former glory. The thing I like best about our particular kind of spirea is that it seems to glow on cloudy days or just after the sun sets. You can look out on a gray spring day (or in early twilight) and the spirea jumps out at your eye - as if it gives out more light than I recieves. Very beautiful. Our spirea borders our woods. These are about half the size they were before the drought. Behind some of our remaining dogwoods are in full bloom.

Unfashionable History

Marc Egnal ’s new work on “The Economic Origins of the Civil War” is sure to raise plenty of eyebrows. As he himself admits on the last page of the book, his perspective is “hardly fashionable”. In a nutshell, Dr. Egnal opines that throughout America’s great era of compromise ( the Nullification Crisis , the Missouri Compromise , and the Kansas-Nebraska Act ) our country was closely tied to common, agrarian economic interests which allowed people of differing opinions on the issue of slavery to work through whatever crisis faced the country. Political divisions were based more on class (the wealthy and the urban dwellers were Whigs, while smaller farmers and workers were Democrats) than on regions. However, with the industrial development of the northeast and, more importantly, the mid-west, these ties gradually became more regionalized . “This economic interpretation emphasizes the materialist roots of secessionist ideology. It grounds the defense of slavery both geographically and

Basic Dogness

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Left to right, Nala , Parks, and Charlie on our front porch. So happy together. When we married, Jennifer came complete with two indoor cats. In fact, I shacked up with the cats in our first home a couple of weeks before we entered wedded bliss. It was a kind of get acquainted time for the cats and myself. That was about 21 years ago. I hate cats. Always have. So, love conquered all where my betrothed and felines were concerned. Some years later, shortly after my daughter was born, both cats passed on - as we say in respectful company. It wasn't really a relief for me though. By that time I had repressed my hatred and actually came around to almost liking them. I'm far more adaptable than my OCD , routine-infested life might otherwise suggest. At any rate, growing up I always had a dog or two at my parent's home. I enjoyed taking long walks through woods and open fields with them. We had no neighbor children so dogs were my playmates. We would run and rough-house together.

Adam Lambert

I do not watch American Idol but over 30 million Americans do. It is a cultural phenomenon that I do not belittle simply because it largely disgusts me. However, I keep up with cultural phenomenons. My daughter and my wife are into the show. It is, by default in my house, my background noise. My wife has the total hots for Adam Lambert . It is an interesting thing to behold, her enthusiasm. Anyway, last Wednesday before Lost ( which is the only TV show I watch religiously ) came on I sat down and watched the last 10 minutes with her before changing the channel. Adam Lambert gave this performance . Most importantly, Simon Cowell responded the way he did - a standing ovation . My bet is that it's the only time he has done anything so highly complementary live on the show. The moment was magic. I told Jennifer later, after watching that week's episode of Lost , that I think as far as American Idol goes I nailed it in actually experiencing something brilliant for possibly the on

Gaming Chancellorsville

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Jennifer and my daughter took a long weekend trip to New York City and left me here with the dogs. I enjoy solitude so this doesn’t bother me. By coincidence, on Friday I got in the mail a new wargame I ordered recently. HPS Chancellorsville , the latest in John Tiller’s Civil War Battles series . I spent much of the weekend tending to dogs, mowing and weed-eating, taking some pics and playing this game. This particular game is a computer wargame. There are all kinds of wargames. I have played wargames since I was a teenager. Mostly, these have been board wargames. See my friend Matt’s blog for an understanding of board wargames. My favorite board wargames include OCS Case Blue , Red Star Rising , Ukraine ’43 , Prussia’s Glory , SWWAS Midway , and Thunder at the Crossroads . I favor wargames regarding the War Between the States and East Front of World War Two , just as I favor these subjects in my military history reading. I own a lot of computer wargames. Almost the entire Tiller Ci

Wisteria Being

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There's a space in my woods that smells very sweet this time of year. For several years after we first bought this property we did battle with wisteria . It was covering part of our forest alive. Totally out of control. Now, it keeps coming back - though it is much more subdued - and it blooms so sweetly in the very early spring. Bees have returned over the last two weeks in great numbers. I can recollect on the unique aroma, a thick sweetness pervading the air. It takes me back to the same smells of my youth and early music of Dan Fogelberg , how I listened to his Wisteria . Our tulips are blooming. Jennifer recently took an outstanding close-up of one of our better tulips.