Parsing Out Dystopia: The Sudan Conflict – Part One

Situation map as presented at sundanwarmonitor.com.

I have not written anything about the on-going war between Israel and Hamas. I'm still trying to untangle all the conflicting information and disinformation about what's happening there. The original attack by Hamas was a stark, tragic act of terrorism that is completely unacceptable. The subsequent deaths of so many Palestinian civilians also seems unacceptable to me. It seems everybody thinks Israel had no other choice. But that simply isn't true. Hamas could be destroyed by more covert, less intrusive methods. So, I'm still pondering the balance sheet as to what to conclude about this unfolding disaster.

The tragedies in Ethiopia and Ukraine have already been discussed. Ethiopia is probably the bloodiest war fought so far in this century. Was anybody protesting that? Recently, Yuval Noah Harari speculated that perhaps World War III might have already broken out. He spoke of how the people of the world in 1939 did not see that the various regional conflicts going on Asia, Europe and Africa as connected. But they all ultimately resulted in World War II. It is interesting to speculate whether or not we have a global conflict emerging out of this plethora of regional nightmares. By 1940, Japan and Germany were allies. There are no such allied superpowers involved in the regional conflicts of today (so far).

One such conflict that goes under-reported and few people are discussing is the current conflict in Sudan. (The same is true with the Ethiopian Civil War - which probably isn't over.) Most people don't know where Sudan is. Ukraine had all the headlines for many months but it became a grinding war of attrition, the news cycle became bored with it and then Hamas struck. Israel supposedly has a “special relationship” with the US. So, the news media shifted its focus. Israel is now the focal point not only in the news but upon college campuses. Students are protesting Israel's heavy-handed response to the horrific terror attack.

But you will see no mass protests about Sudan (nor for the many dead in Ethiopia). You will get little news about what is happening there, even though in some respects it is worse than what is happening in the Middle East. But I have had my eye on Sudan since this conflict started. I devote an entire e-magazine to it. I seek information on it, which is the only way you are going to find it. For Americans, this war is not “in your face” the way Ukraine and Israel are. This is tragic in itself. Another war in Africa that few Americans even hear about. There must be some kind of prejudice involved there somewhere.

Nevertheless, the ongoing conflict in Sudan stands as a stark example of a contemporary dystopia unfolding before our eyes. Since April 15, 2023, the country has been plunged into a brutal civil war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). This conflict has torn apart the fabric of Sudanese society, leaving in its wake a landscape of destruction, human suffering, and societal collapse that bears all the hallmarks of a dystopian nightmare. The situation in Sudan serves as a grim reminder of how quickly a nation can descend into chaos and how the international community's response often falls short in preventing such catastrophes.

The roots of Sudan's current dystopian reality can be traced back to the political instability that has plagued the country since 2019. The overthrow of long-time dictator Omar al-Bashir in April 2019 marked a moment of hope for many Sudanese, but it also set the stage for a power struggle that would eventually plunge the country into chaos. The subsequent power-sharing agreement between military and civilian leaders was fraught with tension from the start, highlighting the fragility of Sudan's political landscape and the deep-seated divisions that would ultimately lead to the current conflict.

At the heart of Sudan's descent into war lies the intense rivalry between two military factions: the SAF led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti. This rivalry exemplifies the dystopian nature of power struggles in fragile states, where military leaders vie for control with little regard for the welfare of civilians. The origins of the RSF in the notorious Janjaweed militias, known for their brutal tactics during the Darfur conflict, foreshadowed the violence that would engulf the country.

The failed transition to civilian rule and the military coup of October 2021 marked a critical turning point for Sudan. This event shattered hopes for democratic governance and exposed the deep-rooted resistance to civilian oversight within the military establishment. The coup, which saw the SAF and RSF temporarily unite to dissolve the civilian government and suspend the constitution, laid bare the fragility of Sudan's political institutions and the ease with which authoritarian forces could reassert control.

The immediate trigger for the current conflict, which erupted in April 2023, stemmed from disputes over the integration of the RSF into the regular armed forces and the distribution of power between Burhan and Hemedti. This breakdown in negotiations reveals the inherent instability of power-sharing arrangements in post-authoritarian contexts and the potential for such disputes to escalate into full-scale war. The failure to peacefully resolve these differences, resulting in the outbreak of violence, demonstrates how easily political disagreements can devolve into armed conflict, especially in societies with a history of militarization and weak civilian institutions.

The SAF, as the official military of Sudan, represent the continuity of state power amidst the chaos. Its use of heavy weaponry and airstrikes in urban areas, resulting in significant civilian casualties, underscores the brutality of warfare and the erosion of military ethics in pursuit of power. This transformation of a national defense force into an instrument of internal repression.

The RSF, with their origins in the Janjaweed militias, embody warlordism and the privatization of violence. Their tactics, including ethnic targeting and the use of sexual violence as a weapon of war, harken back to the darkest chapters of human history. The RSF's ability to challenge the state's monopoly on violence and control significant portions of the country highlights the fragmentation of authority characteristic of failed or weak states.

Civilians and protest groups in Sudan find themselves trapped between warring factions and subjected to unimaginable horrors. The bravery of those who continue to advocate for democracy and human rights in the face of overwhelming violence is a sign pointing to the resilience of the human spirit. However, their struggles also highlight the immense challenges faced by ordinary people in asserting their rights and dignity where violence reigns supreme and civil society is under constant threat.

The involvement of international actors in the Sudan conflict adds layers of complexity to an already dystopian situation. While some entities genuinely seek to alleviate suffering and promote peace, others pursue geopolitical interests that often exacerbate the conflict. The failure of the international community to effectively intervene and protect civilians exposes the limitations of global governance structures and the selective nature of humanitarian concern.

The tactics and strategies employed in the Sudan conflict paint a picture of urban warfare in a impoverished setting. Cities like Khartoum are transformed into apocalyptic landscapes, with civilians trapped in the crossfire and essential infrastructure reduced to rubble. The control of key infrastructure has become a central objective, with both sides vying for strategic assets like airports and government buildings, often at a devastating cost to civilian life. This transformation of urban spaces into battlefields epitomizes the breakdown of the social contract and the militarization of everyday life.

Striking in densely populated areas the air barrages and artillery represents one of the most horrifying aspects of the conflict. These indiscriminate attacks have resulted in massive civilian casualties and widespread destruction, turning once-vibrant neighborhoods into wastelands (similar to what we witness in Gaza). The psychological impact of constant bombardment, with civilians living under the perpetual threat of sudden death from above, creates a climate of fear and despair. This aspect of the conflict underscores the ruthlessness of warfare and the disregard for human life that often accompanies struggles for power.

The employment of blockades and sieges as military tactics has led to severe humanitarian crises, with entire populations cut off from food, water, and medical supplies. These medieval-style tactics, applied in a contemporary context, create pockets of extreme deprivation and suffering within the larger conflict zone. The deliberate use of starvation and deprivation as weapons of war represents a particularly cruel aspect of this conflict, highlighting how basic human needs can be weaponized. This strategy not only inflicts immediate suffering but also has long-term consequences for the physical and mental health of affected populations.

Guerrilla tactics, used primarily by the RSF, add an element of unpredictability and terror to the conflict. Hit-and-run attacks, ambushes, and the blending of combatants with civilian populations create an atmosphere of constant danger and suspicion. This erosion of trust and the blurring of lines between combatants and civilians where no one feels safe and everyone is a potential threat. The effectiveness of these tactics in urban environments demonstrates the challenges of maintaining order and protecting civilians in contemporary conflicts, especially in densely populated areas.

The largest battle in this conflict so far is the continuing fight for Khartoum, Sudan's capital. The sudden eruption of violence on April 15, 2023, caught many civilians off guard, transforming a bustling metropolis into a war zone overnight. The RSF's surprise assault on key installations, including the presidential palace and military headquarters, shattered any illusion of security and stability. This abrupt descent into chaos exemplifies the fragility of urban life in unstable regions and the speed with which normalcy can give way to violence. The immediate impact on civilians, many of whom found themselves trapped in the crossfire or forced to flee their homes, highlights the human cost of power struggles in fragile states.

As the battle for Khartoum intensified, the city became a battleground where control over key strategic points determined the ebb and flow of the conflict. The fierce fighting for control of Khartoum International Airport highlighted the critical importance of logistics and air superiority in urban warfare. The airport changed hands multiple times, each transfer accompanied by intense violence and destruction. Similarly, the struggles for control over the Presidential Palace and Military Headquarters symbolized the fight for legitimacy and power at the heart of the conflict. These battles not only resulted in significant loss of life and destruction of infrastructure but also represented the dismantling of symbols of state authority, further eroding the foundations of governance and order in Sudan.

The tactics and weaponry employed in the Battle of Khartoum paint a grim picture of urban conflict. The SAF's use of air power and artillery strikes against RSF positions in densely populated areas resulted in devastating civilian casualties and widespread destruction of urban infrastructure. The indiscriminate nature of these attacks, often hitting residential areas, hospitals, and schools, exemplifies the brutal disregard for civilian life. On the other hand, the RSF's employment of guerrilla tactics, including the use of civilian areas as staging grounds for attacks, blurred the lines between combatants and non-combatants, creating an atmosphere of perpetual danger and suspicion. This erosion of the distinction between military and civilian spaces is almost exactly what we are seeing in the Gaza strip, but notice – no protests on American campuses.

By late 2023, the conflict had settled into a grim stalemate, with the city divided between SAF and RSF-controlled areas, each fortified against the other. The failure of mediation efforts in early 2024 and the worsening humanitarian situation marked the entrenchment of dystopian conditions in the once-vibrant capital. As of mid-2024, the ongoing conflict and sporadic clashes continue to define life in Khartoum, with no resolution in sight. This protracted urban battle is an example of what we see all over Sudan. Neither side can gain more than a temporary advantage. The “control” of territory is constantly subject to change. In this respect, the frontlines of the war, while fluid, remain largely the same as when the first shots rang out.

Both the SAF and RSF control significant parts of the city, creating a patchwork of contested zones and no-go areas that restrict movement and fragment urban life. This division not only hampers humanitarian efforts and the provision of basic services but also entrenches the conflict, making a peaceful resolution seem ever more distant. The persistence of this situation, with civilians caught in the middle and forced to navigate a cityscape defined by violence and deprivation, epitomizes the long-term impact of urban warfare on metropolitan areas.

Besides Khartoum, the conflict's other major battle zone is a campaign involving the Darfur region. Already scarred by brutal fighting that began in 2003, Darfur has once again become a focal point of violence and humanitarian crisis. The origins of the RSF in the Janjaweed militias, notorious for their role in previous in Darfur, create a chilling continuity of violence. This background demonstrates how unresolved conflicts and historical grievances can perpetuate cycles of violence, transforming regions into enduring war zones. The resurgence of conflict in Darfur is a grim reminder of the long-lasting impacts of ethnic violence and the challenges of achieving reconciliation in deeply divided societies.

The key events and tactics employed in the Darfur campaign paint an inexorable picture of violence. The outbreak of renewed conflict in April 2023 saw the RSF quickly seizing control of major towns and cities, leveraging their local connections and knowledge. This rapid takeover exposed the fragility of peace in the region and the ease with which violence can reignite in areas with a history of conflict. The subsequent reports of ethnic violence and atrocities, including mass killings, rapes, and forced displacements, echo the horrors of the previous Darfur conflict, revealing a region trapped in bloodshed. The use of guerrilla tactics and asymmetric warfare by the RSF, countered by the SAF's airstrikes and artillery bombardments, has transformed Darfur into a battleground where civilian suffering is both a byproduct and a tactic of war.

The current status of the Darfur campaign is characterized by ongoing fighting and the RSF's control over significant portions of the region. The continued efforts by the SAF to regain lost territory have resulted in intense clashes, further destabilizing the region and exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. This protracted conflict has not only caused immense suffering among the civilian population but has also eroded any semblance of governance or rule of law in the region. The entrenchment of RSF control in many areas of Darfur raises troubling questions about the future of the region and the potential for long-term fragmentation of Sudan. The inability of the central government to assert control over Darfur highlights the challenges of maintaining national unity in the face of armed opposition and ethnic divisions.

So far, the best estimates of killings stands between 13,000 and 15,000 people, mostly civilians (far less than in Gaza but this war does not involve the more sophisticated capabilities of western military aid that are ready at hand for Israel). These figures likely underestimate the true toll, many deaths go unreported. The concentration of casualties in urban areas like Khartoum highlights the particular brutality of contemporary urban warfare, where civilians often bear the brunt of the violence (as in Gaza and Ukraine).

The displacement crisis resulting from the Sudan conflict represents one of the most visible manifestations of its dystopian nature. With approximately 8.6 million people displaced, including over 2 million who have fled to neighboring countries, the scale of human displacement is staggering (as it is in both Gaza and Ukraine, wars impact civilians as much as soldiers, often more so). This mass exodus has torn apart the social fabric of Sudan, separating families, disrupting communities, and creating a humanitarian crisis of epic proportions.

Those internally displaced are struggling to survive in makeshift camps or overcrowded urban areas, face daily challenges of finding food, water, and shelter. Those who have fled to neighboring countries often face uncertain futures, potential exploitation, and the trauma of forced migration. This massive displacement not only represents an immediate humanitarian crisis but also poses long-term challenges for Sudan's recovery and stability.

The specter of widespread food insecurity, with as many as 18 million people facing acute hunger, adds another layer of horror. 750,000 are beyond mere hunger and are at risk for starvation today.  (Where are the protests?)  This crisis is not merely a byproduct of the conflict but has been exacerbated by deliberate tactics such as the destruction of food supplies and the obstruction of aid delivery. The breakdown of food production and distribution systems, coupled with the challenges of delivering aid in conflict zones, has created pockets of extreme deprivation and raising the specter of mass starvation. The long-term consequences of widespread malnutrition, particularly on children, threaten to create a lost generation, further entrenching the cycle of poverty and conflict.

(to be continued)