Triumph of the Kooks: America Deserves Trump

“You know, I’ve spent my entire life time separating the Right from the kooks.” That is what William F. Buckley, firebrand conservative of what used to be the American Right said to his son, Christopher, many years ago. Christopher included that quote as part of his justification for endorsing then Senator Barack Obama which was part of the reason I voted that way back in 2008.

Obama's opponent, Senator John McCain, who I respected and actually supported for a time in 2000, chose Sarah Palin to be the VP for his ticket and I just could not go along with that. Palin had no knowledge of anything, no experience to qualify her for any Federal position. McCain was trying to appeal to disaffected conservatives in order to outdraw Obama at the polls. But, at that time, Obama was the Democrat's Trump as far as a thriving base goes. McCain lost his bet to out-poll a phenomenon and in the process, through Palin and enabling many others like her, he unleashed the path to 2010's Tea Party and so on and so forth until MAGA arrived in all its glory.

Unfortunately for Buckley and the rest of us, the kooks are now in charge. They've been in charge of the American Right since at least 2016, prompting notable Republicans like George Will to abandon their party while those like Dick Chaney abandoned the party's nominee. The kooks (and assorted other Republicans who should know better) are about to give us an angry, vengeful, old man only a couple of years behind Biden in terms of senility, with absolutely nothing to stop him. Only hand-picked loyalists will fill his administration - not MAGA but, rather, loyalty over quality is Trump's 2.0 motto.  All that, the Heritage Foundation (Project 2025), and other cultural forces will enable and embolden this classic thug with a huge ax to grind. 

Trump will then go after the American Department of Justice and the Central Intelligence Agency like no president in history, transforming them (or bypassing them with his own "committees") into his personal gestapo. What could possibly go wrong? At a minimum, this is the best possible test to see how much damage political cult worship can do if set loose by the mostly medieval psychology of the American voters.

In his 2008 Obama endorsement, Christopher Buckley wrote: “We are all in this together. Necessity is the mother of bipartisanship.” Was that true then? I seem to remember it, Reagan and O'Neil and all that. But that was 20+ years before Christopher's scandalous endorsement. Is it true now? Astonishingly, no. Why? The kooks William Buckley tried to keep out of the Right, and did for many decades, are now running amok. American conservatism elected Presidents Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Bush, and Bush II. Then the kooks took over and gave us President Trump. Now, they are about to do it again after the presidency of a failed, pitiful President Biden, the man who consistently shot himself in the foot with his mouth (or put his foot in his mouth) and gave us ideas without organization. Woe is we.

Trump the sequel. I have feared a reboot of the 1950's (or the attempt at it, there's really no going back) for many posts. I feared it in 2020 before Biden pulled off a victory. Trump actually was able to leverage his defeat (and his encitement of a riot against the US Capitol while Congress certifying the election) into making himself a victim and many millions of voters bought it. Every damn kook out there bought the “fact” that Trump was victimized by the election process itself and later persecuted for it just as the Romans persecuted Christ himself.

The fact that then Vice-President Mike Pence and almost everyone else on the planet knows Trump, a convicted criminal, is lying is one of the most shocking things I can think of right now. Have we lost our taste for the truth? The kooks don't give a shit about lies. They want to win. They want a winner, preferably a brash, unapologetic fighter. That would be great. They want to be great because they've always been kooks. By definition, the want something they can't have. They're kooks.

America is full of kooks. John McCain took a microphone away from one of his supporters at a rally in 2008 and critiqued her that what she said was not true. But, you could hear the astonishment in the woman's voice as he took the mic away when she asked “It's not?” Obama was not his enemy, McCain told everyone. “He is a good man and I happen to disagree with him,” or words to that effect. Civil words.

Well, there are no John McCains now. McCain himself is dead. The list of fine people who have walked away from their responsibility to manage their political party, just abdicated all obligation, is stupefying. Perhaps they would have never been re-elected but they didn't even try. Among them are: Pat Toomy of Pennsylvania, Will Hurd of Texas, Bob Cocker of Tennessee, Jeff Flake of Arizona, John Boehner of Ohio, and Mitt Romney of Utah.

Wisconsin Republican Paul Ryan resigned as Speaker of the House during Trump's tenure. Ryan has openly stated that Donald Trump is a “narcissist” and should not become president. Ryan was the beginning of the wave, one of the Tea Party guys. How quickly that all changed when the kooks took charge. Instead of fighting for the future of his party, he chose to just “vote” and that's it. His leadership was needed more than ever at precisely the moment, the moment all these fine Republicans I have mentioned faced, he resigned (or chose not to run again). Without their leadership the kooks filled the void. Woe is we, like the mad clarity of Howard Beal in Network. “We're in a lot of trouble!”

And that's where we are. Tomorrow is Election Day. I will go down to my local polling precinct. I will prove my registration. I will vote for Kamala Harris and I will return home thinking my vote counted. Trump will likely win Georgia (and most of the other battleground states which is why he is probably going to win the election) but my vote at least help make it close. Maybe even damn close. It will be closer is places like Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, reflecting the true heart of our divided land.

I hope it doesn't turn out that we are living in a reality that started eight years ago and has come back now with a vengeance, a wrath, a lengthy list of targeted hit jobs. Zieg Heil! Zieg Heil! Make America Great Again! It's just that easy, right? Kooks. It seems to me that the lesson in American History here is that American populism is far more than a mere nuisance to our society. It is, in fact, the heartbeat of it. The New Deal Democrats and President Johnson's Great Society generated a world very much driven by populist liberal forces.

Now it is the kooks turn to react. The disaffected mass of American conservatives has been galvanized into voters that did not use to vote. (Trump succeeded where McCain failed, which is even more reason to vote against him.) They didn't really care much for Nixon or the Bushes compared to how they worshiped Reagan. Trump worship is different, of course. Reagan brought more leaders into his party and elevated those who were already inside it. Trump ran everybody off who disagreed with him except for a few like poor, frozen, beat-up Mitch McConnell, who is understandably retiring before the coming fray. We need fighters in the the Republican Party and Mitch doesn't have the energy for that any more.  (After I posted this I learned that McConnell endorsed Trump today.  A pitiful and largely meaningless last act of a diminished political career in twilight.  He has become, like Lindsay Graham, just another kisser of Trump's butt.)

Since 2008 I have followed Nate Silver and FiveThirtyEight as the gold standard of political forecasting. For all those years, through my votes for Obama, Clinton, and Biden, I have trusted 538 to give me the best possible insight as to where the election stood. It was dead wrong in 2016. It always had Hillary ahead. Trump never lead. Not once. Silver and company had Biden ahead all the way as it had Obama in 2008 and 2012.

A couple of weeks ago the evolved method by which 538 reports its forecasts started picking Trump to beat Harris. Silver was quick to quail the panic. Trump defeated Harris 52 – 48 Trump over Harris in 100 modeled simulations. That was close to 50 – 50, he said. Harris still had as good a chance to win as Trump, he said. But I know bullshit when I see it. Silver never explicitly stated anything like that when Trump was behind.  The momentum as reflected in 538 polling was clearly in favor of Trump because it had never picked Trump to win before! 

In a prosperous time (which for troubling reasons many consumers do not recognize), the man who received more votes for president than anyone in US history (Joe Biden) dropped out of the race against a convicted criminal cult figure. You can't make this kind of stuff up.  If this were a dystopian novel it would be too outlandish to ever be printed!  

Trump is the Godhead of all those Right-wing kooks that have high-jacked conservatism from the likes of Bush, Cheney, Romney, Ryan, Will, and McCain, if he were still around. This ain't your grandmother's GOP. And yet, MAGA probably only makes up a little less than 40% of the Republican base (at most). Taking in the US population as a whole, it represents less than a third of voters. So how are they going to win?

First of all there's Joe Biden. I never really cared for Biden. But he was the anti-Trump in 2020 so I had little choice. In a moment of acute naivety, I felt he might be able to find a moderate path forward. What a joke! There's no moderation left in this uncompromisingly polarized government. America is great only to the extent its internal factions can compromise with each other. I see none of that today. So greatness seems beyond reach. It isn't a policy, for God's sake! Greatness is free debate and compromise and always has been in this country!

Biden dismantled Trump's border policy before he increased the staffing levels to deal with the massive influx his decision caused. It all looked so incompetent, right out of the gate. He presided over the debacle in Afghanistan even though much of that was not his fault. He passed an amazing infrastructure bill that almost no one, including himself, brags about. He passed a stimulus package that helped trigger massive inflation, which is one reason people feel the prosperous economy is not so prosperous. Biden (and the American Left) just plain sucked. And let's not forget what a a gaffe machine he was, losing his memory in the process.

Secondly, there's Trump, the charismatic would-be martyr to his base if to no one else. The Donald has successfully played himself to be the victim and has initiated the sympathy of a far larger electorate who self-identifies with this tough guy, power leader who gives the finger to all of academia and liberalism and elitism and mass media and anyone established in DC regardless of their political perspective. The establishment must go! This plays so well into Trump's hands. He will be elected (again) by the momentum first established by the kooks.

There are several “battleground” states "in play." States that either candidate theoretically has a chance to win. Georgia is one of those states but, honestly, I think Trump will win here. Like I said, I hope my vote makes it close. Other battlegrounds likely to go to Trump are Nevada, Arizona, and North Carolina. Michigan and Wisconsin look like they might lean toward Harris by the thinnest of margins. All that leaves us with an Electoral College total of 268 for Trump and 251 for Harris. It takes 270 to win.

The only battleground state I haven't mentioned is Pennsylvania. James Carville, Bill Clinton's campaign manager in 1992, once said something to the effect that Pennsylvania is Pittsburgh on one side and Philadelphia on the other with “Alabama in the middle.” As with the other battleground states, it's going to be all about whether the liberal and moderate urban voters will off-set the staunch conservative voters of the rural areas. Obviously, if everything else goes as I have speculated then whoever win Pennsylvania will be out next president.

Unfortunately, 538 gives Trump the same 52 – 48 advantage to win PA as he enjoys overall. So, you could say that chances are "about even" that Harris could win but that feels disingenuous to me. The polls have not budged much in this state for the past several months. Harris was the slight favorite to win PA from August 10 through October 18. Then Trump started winning more polls. According to Silver's brand, Trump's advantage today is 50.1% to 49.9%, closer than anywhere else in the country. My guess is Trump voters are more motivated to vote than Harris voters. So PA will likely tilt to Trump (after one of many recounts to come in the next few days I'm sure). We'll see.

I think whoever wins PA will be our next president.

Regardless of what happens, Trump will once again declare victory early tomorrow night. If it turns out Harris has a stronger showing in the battleground states than I am expecting then his early claim to victory will be the first step in the continuing Big Lie that the election is being “stolen” again. If that happens there will be violence, the lives of polling volunteers will be endangered. All the same crap Germany saw from the Nazi Party before Hitler became Chancellor by winning only one-third of the vote.

A given democracy is only as strong as its ability to withstand and put down intimidation in the political process. I have already pointed out that MAGA operates with a very antiquated psychological toolbox. Most of the rest of the country is not that primitive but we are, nevertheless, mostly medieval which means authoritarianism is basically pretty high on the list of characteristics for effective government in the eyes of a lot of voters. The fact intimidation makes us weaker does not dawn on the medieval mind.

Trump and his ilk are nothing if not masters of intimidation. It's another reason I think PA will tilt toward Trump whether the actual vote reflects that or not. Ballots will be disqualified, perhaps en mass. Everything possible will be done to magnify Trump and disenfranchise Harris voters, not just in PA but in every state, battleground or not. How effective will that be? Who knows? The kooks are in charge so their effectiveness is a matter of luck more than skill.

The floodgate William Buckley feared is very likely about to burst and flow over this nation. We will all reap what we have sown whether we threw a seed or not. I will vote for Harris but I still get the government I deserve as an America. A fearful, loyal-bound, Greco-Roman approach to American democracy. Who is to say what the results might be? But if the damage is minimal it will not because we did not have much to fear.

Don't take my word for it (or Paul Ryan's). HuffPost reported today that a former Trump Administration attorney described Trump's leadership style as “a chaotic disaster.” Further, “Trump is reckless, angry, vengeful, and narcissistic, and he has no respect for the Constitution or the rule of law. He is not a conservative; rather, he is a would-be autocrat and fascist motivated exclusively by his personal self-interest. If you think he cares about you or your family, I assure you that he does not. He cares only about himself.”

The article goes on to point out that there will be “no guardrails” to protect the country and the world from Trump's next term. “If Trump is re-elected, senior administration positions will be filled entirely by blindly ambitious or unqualified radicals and grifters who pass a test of personal loyalty to Trump.”

Is there an echo in this post?  Just for emphasis let's look at all the former military men who were part of Trump's first attempt at a dictatorship (many of whom held him in check for the good of our country).  This article in US News covers eight high-profile military leaders, all of whom are critical of the former president.  These are not left-wing radicals.  These are mosr certainly not the kooks.  They are, in fact, mostly Republicans, which is how they came to attempt to serve Trump to begin with.  They all quit Trump.  Should that tell us anything?  Some samples...

US Marine General John Kelley:  "Certainly the former president is in the far-right area, he’s certainly an authoritarian, admires people who are dictators — he has said that. So he certainly falls into the general definition of fascist, for sure."

Lieutenant-General H. R. McMaster: "(Regarding the January 6 riot on the Capitol. Trump) "abandoned his oath to ‘support and defend the Constitution,’ a president’s highest obligation."

The other six Generals and Admirals use the words "fascist," "divider," "irresponsible," "immoral," "polarizing," and "beyond the pale of American norms" to describe the man who is likely to be our next president.  Needless to say, none of these qualified, proven leaders will serve during the reincarnation of Trump.

I don't even understand why this election is so close. Yes, inflation has been bad and at the forefront of most family's minds. Yes, Biden has been a buffoon. Yes, the end of our involvement Afghanistan was a tragedy, and remains so. Yes, there are concerns about government overreach. Yes, there are issues with the Mexican border (even though the Biden Administration has done more on this issue than Trump ever did). Yes, that seems like poor leadership and America deserves better.

But...the choice is between that bumbling leadership (with its underappreciated prosperity) and a criminal, whose former staff members almost universally agree is “reckless, angry, vengeful, and narcissistic, and he has no respect for the Constitution or the rule of law.” I'm not voting for the dangerous egomaniac. I'm not voting for intimidation and failure to compromise. Those are the factors weakening our nation NOT anyone's policy or ideology and certainly not their alleged "charismatic appeal." And in a country that freely chooses to be intimidated and refuses to compromise on anything, all of us, collectively, freakin' deserve what is likely about to happen.

 

(Written without AI assistance.)

Afterward 11/6.24: It wasn't close.  Trumped kicked ass and ran the table on Harris, winning all the battleground states.  A decisive performance by the kooks and "mainstream" America.  Kamala had her best Deep South showing in Georgia.  My vote contributed to her 48.5% compared with Trump's strong 50.8% showing.  Trump winning Wisconsin and Michigan (as of today) is a particularly devastating blow to the mythic "blue collar" Democrats.  That traditional heart of the party is very medieval psychologically.  Amber people, in Spiral Dynamics.  The Democrats have become elitist and overly arrogant.  The direction is back to Center y'all.  But I doubt that happens.  Everybody doubles down on their mistakes these days.  

As of this update about 138 million votes were cast for either Trump (51%) or Harris (47.5%).  In 2020, 155 million votes were cast between Biden and Trump.  I know millions of ballots are still to be counted for various reasons but it appears fewer people voted this time than in 2024, which is perhaps the most troubling statistic of all.