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"A Wounded, Wild, and Deranged Regime"

[ See all my Iran stuff. ] An Iranian political activist recently described what Donald Trump had done to his country. "He was supposed to save us and help us get rid of this regime. But now he has left us with a wounded, wild, and deranged regime." (Source: War Fronts ) There it is. I have spent much of this war trying to understand what might restrain the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran is not simply the IRGC. There are civilian officials, clerics, business interests, regional governments, rival military organizations, and millions of Iranians who have no particular affection for the regime. I expected a regional powerplay to emerge after the first major round of fighting. Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates had reasons to pressure Iran. Iran's civilian government had reasons to seek a settlement. The clerical state had reasons to preserve itself by putting limits on the IRGC. The Guard had suffered enormous losses. Its naval forces were mauled....
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The 2026 Boston Red Sox Are On Fire

Rk Team       W-L  4+% 4+Rec 4+W% 4+WS ≤3Rec ≤3W% ≤3WS TotWS Last12 L12 Trend 1 Dodgers 63-37 .590 54-5 .915 .540 9-32 .220 .090 .630 ++-+-+---++- .500 - 2 Brewers 62-37 .596 50-9 .847 .505 12-28 .300 .121 .626 ++++-+---+++ .667 3 Braves 57-41 .653 48-16 .750 .490 9-25 .265 .092 .582 +---++--++-+ .500 4 Rays 56-42 .602 47-12 .797 .480 9-30 .231 .092 .571 --++-++----- .333 -- 5 Cubs 56-43 .606 49-11 .817 .495 7-32 .179 .071 .566 --+++--++-++ .583 6 Yankees 55-44 .606 47-13 .783 .475 8-31 .205 .081 .556 --+--++++--+ .500 7 Phillies 55-45 .530 42-11 .792 .420 13-34 .277 .130 .550 +--+-+-++-+- .500 8 White Sox 52-46 .561 39-16 .709 .398 13-30 .302 .133 .531 -++---++++-+ .583 9 Cardinals 51-47 .561 40-15 .727 .408 11-32 .256 .112 .520 ----+-++-+-- .333 -- 10 Marlins 52-48 .570 45-12 .789 .450 7-36 .163 .070 .520 ++++++----...
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Powerplay: The Region Reacts to the IRGC

[ See all my Iran stuff. ] Reuters reported early today that “Iran’s Revolutionary Guards navy said” it had closed the Strait of Hormuz “until further notice” after firing a warning shot at a vessel it said had attempted to transit along an unapproved route. A navy official, representing a force that has been effectively obliterated, announced that the Strait of Hormuz is closed. Traffic has crawled to a minimum. A country without a traditional navy has stopped the use of international waters. You can't make this stuff up. The IRGC does not need a navy. It’s got missiles. Probably hundreds more, though most are likely of dubious quality. It also has the ability to manufacture a multitude of drones. These are cheap and bring a lot of bang for the buck. It does not need to control the Strait in the way navies once controlled water. It simply needs to make ship captains pause. It needs insurers to reprice. It needs oil traders to flinch. It needs everyone to wonder whether the next t...
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The 2026 New York Yankees Are Crashing

My Win Zone chart going into today's play...compare with here and here . Rk  Team        W-L     4+%   4+Rec  4+W%  4+WS  ≤3Rec   ≤3W%  ≤3WS  TotWS  Last12        L12   Trend --  ----------  ------  ----  ------  ----  -----  ------  -----  -----  -----  ------------  ----  -----  1  Dodgers     61-33   .617  53-5    .914   .564  8-28     .222   .085   .649  ++++-+++-+-+  .750  *  2  Brewers     58-34   .598  48-7    .873   .522  10-27    .270   .109   .630  -+++-+-++++-  .667  3  Rays        54-36   .611  45-10   .818   .50...
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We Interrupt These Negotiations...

[ Read all my Iran stuff. ] (Posted at noon eastern time.) The US-Iran nuclear talks survived the war longer than I actually thought they would . That is probably the strangest part of the whole thing. Before the Strait became the center of the story, the “interim ceasefire” had settled into tit for tat with minor complaints. Everyone issued statements about restraint while doing the thing the statements were supposedly restraining. It was dangerous, ugly, and absurd, but it still had a rhythm. Like most everyone, I kept waiting for the talks to collapse because the nuclear talks were supposedly the point of the war. That was the final justification. We can’t let a jihadist theocracy have nuclear weapons. It takes a pretty primitive view of the world to disagree with that. Iran's nuclear program had to be set years back if not eliminated. Iran's leadership had to be restrained. Iran's military capacity had to be whacked. As usual, Trump wanted the grand declarative ver...
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Göbekli Tepe: Through a Distant Lens

Since I watched videos pertaining to my recent post , there has been sooooo much Göbekli Tepe clickbait in my YouTube feed lately. "The world's oldest temple." "The mysterious sanctuary that rewrites human history." Then a thumbnail appears showing some ancient limestone pillar next to an ominous-looking guy pointing at it like he just found proof that the Neolithic had Wi-Fi. It is mostly bullshit. Maybe Göbekli Tepe was a temple site. No one knows. That is the first thing to say. There is no surviving text. No named god. No prayer. No priestly rulebook. No account of what people thought they were doing there. No carved little sign saying, "Welcome to the Temple of the Great Fox. Please leave your offering at the front desk." There are, however, enormous limestone pillars. There are animals everywhere. There are lots of animal bones. There are some human remains, though the site does not appear to be a cemetery or a place where people we...
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