Parsing Out Dystopia: Waiting for the Indian Variant

 

The worldwide daily number of COVID-19 cases recently set an new high as we clearly are in a second wave of the pandemic globally.  This is a graph from the excellent Johns Hopkins interactive site.

The number of confirmed new daily cases in the US are down sharply from the winter months.  Nevertheless, it has plateaued for the moment between 80,000 and 60,000 new cases per day.

I got my second Moderna jab last week.  By May 1, I should be as protected as medically possible against the virus.  I am looking forward to going out to lunch and dinner in restaurants again.  To seeing my friends from Atlanta.  I am a hermit and an introverted person by nature but even I'm ready to get some social interaction.

The truth is that this is all an experiment.  Statistically, I have about 4 chances out of 10,000 of still contracting COVID-19.  Several thousand people who were inoculated have already gotten it anyway, according to the CDC.  But, apparently none of them died from it, so the vaccines seem to be nearly 100% effective against severe COVID symptoms, which is a relief.

Matters are less clear in terms of known variants.  The worst, so far, seems to be from South Africa, where current vaccines do not appear to be as effective.  The dystopian reality is that we will likely need booster shots to remain effective against the original virus and its variants.  But this is all an experiment, as I said.  No one knows what will happen.

Thankfully, the daily number of US deaths from the pandemic are down sharply, though still higher than last May and June.  Hundreds of millions of vaccination jabs should help us even further...for now.

The number of cases are steadily rising in Brazil.  But notice the change in scale.  On it worst days Brazil has reported around 90,000 new cases.

But Brazil's daily deaths are skyrocketing with many recent days above 3,500.  This reflects the country's hospital infrastructure cracking under the demand of the virus.

Compare the US and Brazil with India.  The scale has shifted again, this time much higher.  India is experiencing several days of over 200,000 positive new cases, far more than anywhere else in the world currently.  This is likely a small percentage of the actual total due to India's high population density and its comparatively inadequate testing capacity.

Notice there is no lag between the exponential rise in daily cases and the number of daily deaths, indicating that much more of the population was already infected before the most recent rise in positive cases.  India is out of control.

My guess is that since 25% of Americans are opting not to be vaccinated our population will remain a breeding ground for the pandemic.  Virtually every person who does not get vaccinated will almost certainly get the virus in the next year or two.  Perhaps, as has been the case so far, it is no big deal for the vast majority of people.  Most remain asymptomatic or do not require hospitalization to recover.

There is still the issue of COVID "long haulers" hanging over us.  Simply surviving the disease often does not make it go away within the body.  Scientists are still trying to figure out exactly why some people have almost no symptoms while others have lingering health problems.

The other, more important, issue is the nature of variants.  The more people that remain "active hosts" to the virus, the more likely the virus is to mutate into some other form.  Perhaps the form will be similar in lethality as the United Kingdom variant.  Or perhaps it will be more contagious as with the South African.  It is a roll of the dice.  The more people are infected with COVID, the greater the chance it will morph into something else.  That's why refusing the vaccine is making yourself an accomplice to the virus.  You are part of the problem.

Which is why the recent events in India are so troubling.  As the chart above indicates, the pandemic seems to be just ramping up in India, home to more than a billion people packed into a country a fraction of the size of the US.  The dystopian reality is that there is no way for India to now bring this under control.  It will likely work its way through the population despite inoculation efforts.  This is no guarantee of a unique Indian variant or multiple variants.  But it greatly increases the likelihood of some new COVID form.  

Of course, with cases rising most everywhere on the planet except in the US and a few other countries, variants are practically inevitable.  We can only hope that none of them evolve into something much more malicious.  This is all an experiment which makes it even more dystopian.  Where do we go from here?  No one exactly knows.  We are truly winging it.  The vaccines are helping but will they be enough?   

Late Note: The day after I posted this several articles appeared in the news regarding a "triple mutation strain" found in India. According to one Indian health expert "this is the most transmittable form of the virus."  A double mutation was discovered last October.  It has since evolved into this new strain.  This is precisely why the whole world should keep wearing masks and practice safe measures.  The virus wants to transform into something else.  It has already and it will continue to thanks to slow vaccination distribution, anti-vaxxers, and people who simply are incapable of living intelligently in this dystopian reality.

Very Late Note:  In keeping with political correctness and the contention that no person or country is responsible for anything, the "Indian" variant became known as the Delta variant after it originated in India.  It swept across the globe and became the most contagious and widespread COVID-19 mutation for many months.