"A Wounded, Wild, and Deranged Regime"
An Iranian political activist recently described what Donald Trump had done to his country.
"He was supposed to save us and help us get rid of this regime. But now he has left us with a wounded, wild, and deranged regime." (Source: War Fronts)
There it is.
I have spent much of this war trying to understand what might restrain the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran is not simply the IRGC. There are civilian officials, clerics, business interests, regional governments, rival military organizations, and millions of Iranians who have no particular affection for the regime.
I expected a regional powerplay to emerge after the first major round of fighting. Saudi Arabia, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates had reasons to pressure Iran. Iran's civilian government had reasons to seek a settlement. The clerical state had reasons to preserve itself by putting limits on the IRGC. The Guard had suffered enormous losses. Its naval forces were mauled. Its air defenses were badly damaged. Its missile and drone capabilities were under constant attack.
But the IRGC never left attack mode. Which is more than a bit “wild and deranged.”
It continued targeting international ships. It continued firing missiles and drones at American bases and regional infrastructure in neighboring countries. It continued asserting practical control over the Strait of Hormuz. It never behaved like a battered organization preparing to accept its place inside a new regional arrangement. It behaved like a wounded animal, wildly lashing out.
The United States was forced back into a major air-strike offensive. For ten consecutive nights American aircraft and missiles struck Iranian command centers, air defenses, missile and drone sites, maritime capabilities, coastal surveillance systems, and targets around Bandar Abbas and the Strait.
Iran is firing fewer missiles this time. That should not be surprising. Launchers have been destroyed. Storage areas have been hit. The missiles themselves are finite. Iran cannot manufacture sophisticated weapons at the rate the United States can destroy or force it to expend them.
They can, however, make a lot of drones. And they managed to export $6 billion worth of trade out of the country during the American declared ceasefire. Though it might take them a while, they will eventually build all those drones.
American stocks are strained too. Interceptors and long-range weapons take years to rebuild. Round One was spending them like there is no invoice coming. Round Two seems to be more of a traditional aircraft strike since there is absolutely nothing to shoot our pilots down.
So the war has returned in a somewhat diminished form. Two boxers in the late rounds, still fighting.
I thought we already "kicked their ass."
I have said for awhile now that Iran does not have to defeat the United States Navy to dictate traffic on the Strait of Hormuz. It cannot. The United States controls the sea around Iran. It can blockade Iranian ports, board ships, destroy naval facilities, and decide what enters or leaves the Iranian coast. But the IRGC can make the Strait unsafe.
As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to normal commercial traffic, Iran is winning the war.
It obviously does not have to be literally sealed. Iran does not need a chain stretched from Bandar Abbas to Oman. A few successful attacks, a few drifting tankers, some mines, uncertain navigation routes, and enough missiles hidden along the coast will do the work.
In recent weeks several ships have been hit and at least one oil tanker set ablaze for navigating on the Oman side of the Strait. The IRGC is projecting control over the entire Strait.
On July 16, only three commodity vessels passed through the Strait, the lowest daily number since May. No very large crude carriers or liquefied natural gas tankers crossed for a second consecutive day. Another Reuters report found only nine vessels crossing on the previous Wednesday, most using the route preferred by Iran. Normal traffic is not taking place.
What has Operation Epic Fury stimulated?
Look at this mess. Oil prices rising worldwide. American missile stocks badly depleted. The IRGC controlling a country where the clergy previously kept it on a leash, if not exactly in check. Washington publicly berating European allies for refusing to join a war they were never consulted about. The Saudis (among others) pissed at everybody.
Great global leadership, guys!
The only possible plus here is that the Iranian nuclear weapons program has supposedly been severely degraded. Can you imagine the present situation if the IRGC had nukes?
The United States can destroy an Iranian missile site and stimulate another attack on a tanker. It can destroy a bridge and stimulate Iranian nationalism. It can eliminate an IRGC commander and make the Guard more central to the survival of the regime. It can bomb civilian and military infrastructure in southern Iran and stimulate anger toward America instead of rebellion against Tehran.
Washington apparently expected military pressure to create divisions inside Iran. Perhaps the civilian government would push for an agreement. Perhaps the clerics would decide the IRGC was endangering the regime. Perhaps ordinary Iranians would rise against the people who had oppressed them for decades.
Instead, the bombing produced a wave of Iranian nationalism. Iranians do not have to love the Islamic Republic to oppose the country bombing Iran. They do not have to admire the IRGC to recognize that it is the organization fighting the foreign attack. The Guard benefits from the very violence intended to weaken it.
The civilian government has no independent army. The clerical establishment depends on the IRGC for its survival. Regional states can strike Iranian targets, but they cannot control the political result inside Iran. Opposition figures cannot organize effectively while their country is under attack without appearing to collaborate with the enemy.
Now the IRGC has widened the war. The Houthis have declared a naval blockade against Saudi shipping near Bab el-Mandeb. Saudi Arabia's primary method of avoiding Hormuz is to pump oil west to Yanbu on the Red Sea.
Now the alternative route is threatened too. It is one thing to shutdown the Strait. But to project yourself so as to shut down the Red Sea too? That is power.
The Houthis might possess only a diminished supply of missiles and drones. The IRGC might have only a fraction of its original coastal capability. A small number of weapons can still produce an enormous commercial effect.
It really only takes a few key hits like that burning oil tanker.
The United States can continue destroying radars, launchers, drone facilities, speedboats, command posts, bridges, tunnels, and coastal surveillance systems. It may eventually eliminate most of Iran's organized ability to attack shipping.
Commercial traffic requires confidence. Iran requires only doubt.
The United States has to create safety every day, across the entire Strait, for every ship. Iran has to break that confidence occasionally. The burden is completely unequal.
Perhaps ground forces could change the equation. American troops positioned along parts of the coast might reduce the time between detecting a mobile launcher and destroying it. Sensors, drones, special operations teams, and rapid-response forces could make it harder for the IRGC to hide.
The current air campaign might be preparing several isolated areas for such an option. Strikes on radar, coastal defenses, and transportation systems can isolate a region as well as destroy targets inside it. Bandar Abbas and the surrounding islands have been hit repeatedly.
I do not think ground forces are imminent. The strikes remain too geographically broad. An invasion or limited coastal occupation would probably be preceded by a much more concentrated campaign. One small region would be systematically blinded, isolated, and pounded until nothing could move into it without being detected.
Some places might already be sufficiently degraded for a raid or temporary seizure. Holding territory is another thing.
Only a couple of weeks ago, the boast from the IRGC was that Iran could not be invaded. Now the message is that an invasion would accomplish nothing because the invaders could not hold what they took. Hmmm.
Still, the immediate problem remains the Strait. The American air campaign is destroying hundreds of Iranian military and infrastructure targets. Iran is suffering economically. Its ports are blockaded. Its infrastructure is being steadily dismantled. The economy is slowly shutting down.
So here we are.
The United States dominates the air. It controls the surrounding sea. It can strike almost anything it can locate. Iran has lost ships, aircraft, launchers, radars, bases, commanders, bridges, roads, and billions of dollars.
Israel and the United States blew the hell out of Iran. They created complete existential chaos at every level of Iranian society, including among those opposing the government who had already been protesting in January. One reason I wanted to open with a quote from one of them. It is a useful perspective.
Nevertheless, now many of those same protesters are rallying for their home country, shouting death to America, just what the IRGC needs.
That is what Epic Fury has stimulated so far.
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