The 2026 Boston Red Sox Are On Fire

Rk Team       W-L  4+% 4+Rec 4+W% 4+WS ≤3Rec ≤3W% ≤3WS TotWS Last12 L12 Trend
1Dodgers63-37.59054-5.915.5409-32.220.090.630++-+-+---++-.500-
2Brewers62-37.59650-9.847.50512-28.300.121.626++++-+---+++.667
3Braves57-41.65348-16.750.4909-25.265.092.582+---++--++-+.500
4Rays56-42.60247-12.797.4809-30.231.092.571--++-++-----.333--
5Cubs56-43.60649-11.817.4957-32.179.071.566--+++--++-++.583
6Yankees55-44.60647-13.783.4758-31.205.081.556--+--++++--+.500
7Phillies55-45.53042-11.792.42013-34.277.130.550+--+-+-++-+-.500
8White Sox52-46.56139-16.709.39813-30.302.133.531-++---++++-+.583
9Cardinals51-47.56140-15.727.40811-32.256.112.520----+-++-+--.333--
10Marlins52-48.57045-12.789.4507-36.163.070.520++++++------.500
11Guardians52-48.52040-12.769.40012-36.250.120.520+----++++-+-.500
12Pirates52-48.63043-20.683.4309-28.243.090.520-+++--++++-+.667*
13D-backs51-48.60643-17.717.4348-31.205.081.515+-+--++++-++.667**
14Red Sox50-48.53140-12.769.40810-36.217.102.510++++++++++++1.000***
15Rangers50-49.52542-10.808.4248-39.170.081.505+--+-++-+-+-.500
16Nationals50-50.62042-20.677.4208-30.211.080.500+--+-+---+-+.417
17Mariners50-50.49035-14.714.35015-36.294.150.500-++-----+-++.417
18Padres49-50.48538-10.792.38411-40.216.111.495-+-++--++--+.500
19Twins49-51.64044-20.688.4405-31.139.050.490-++++--+++--.583
20Orioles49-51.56040-16.714.4009-35.205.090.490++---+++++++.750**
21Astros47-54.51536-16.692.35611-38.224.109.465-++-+--+----.333-
22Blue Jays46-53.50532-18.640.32314-35.286.141.465+---+++---+-.417
23Tigers46-53.55640-15.727.4046-38.136.061.465-++++++--++-.667**
24Reds45-53.51035-15.700.35710-38.208.102.459--+-+-+--+-+.417
25Giants42-57.41431-10.756.31311-47.190.111.424+-+--+-+++--.500
26Athletics42-57.55635-20.636.3547-37.159.071.424----------+-.083---
27Mets42-58.46037-9.804.3705-49.093.050.420-++-++---+-+.500
28Royals40-60.50033-17.660.3307-43.140.070.400-+++-----++-.417
29Rockies40-61.56432-25.561.3178-36.182.079.396-+-+--+---+-.333
30Angels39-61.46032-14.696.3207-47.130.070.390----+-+----+.250-


Boston has won thirteen straight games. They were in last place three weeks ago. Now they're six games out of first. It's the longest winning streak of any team so far in 2026.

The Win Zone chart catches it clearly. Boston's Last12 (games) reads twelve plus signs in a row. Maximum score. Triple-star trend. Oakland sits at the other end of the same chart, one win in twelve, three minus signs in the Trend column. Worst score. They are low on the chart and sinking fast.

Milwaukee is closing in on the Dodgers. At 54-5, Los Angeles is still the best team in baseball once they score four runs. Absurd. Milwaukee owns the low-scoring end instead, 12-28 when held to three or fewer. They can win more kinds of games than the Dodgers can. A four-point gap in Total Win Share is like none at all.

Colorado has the league's worst record when they score four-plus. The Mets are 5-49 when they don't score four runs.

The Braves are third on the list. 57-41. Normally I'd be excited about that record. But it's such a drop from where they were in April and May that it doesn't feel like we are even winning. Objectively, it is a damn good record for this point in the season. We score four or more runs 65.3 percent of the time, the highest rate in baseball. Unfortunately, we've lost 16 of those games. Terrible. The Dodgers have lost five with the same math working for them. Milwaukee's lost only nine.

Our offense keeps handing us winning conditions. We choke too often. Maybe the bullpen's tiring. I don't know. Meanwhile, Philadelphia's now only three games back. Miami's five. Third place on the chart looks fine until you notice who's easing up on you while you fumble around playing .500 ball. We're just "meh" right now.

After being a lifelong fan, I discovered that, of all the stats in the world, nothing beats scoring 4 runs for winning a ballgame. So far in 2026, teams win .738 of the time they score four runs, .208 when they don't. That's why I call 4 runs the Win Zone. 3 or less is the loss zone but I'm being optimistic in the title lol.

It doesn't work cleanly, though. It's not just about scoring four runs. It's about how many times you win when you do. The Twins are an anomaly. At 64 percent, they score four runs almost as often as the Braves. But they only win 68.8 percent of those games, below league average. Apparently they don't have much pitching. Their 4.66 team ERA is near the bottom of baseball.

Anyway, I created this cool chart and discovered the Win Zone. It's fun to watch baseball on a single spreadsheet.

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