Most Likely: The 2026 Atlanta Braves (so far)

I was playing around with ChatGPT about baseball facts and stats recently. The Atlanta Braves are off to a fantastic, even commanding, start to the 2026 MLB season. I’m a happy fan. Best record in baseball. Best team batting average. Best team ERA. Baseball can be a complex sport but when are batting better than anyone and giving up the fewest earned runs you are going to win a lot of ballgames.

During the course of a long chat, I wandered upon some team baseball stats that shocked me. Far more likely than not, any given team will lose any given game if they fail to score 4 runs or more. The opponent's score does not matter (except indirectly). Disregarding everything else, just looking at runs your team scored, there is a huge gulf between 4 runs and 3 runs. Even more important is the percentage of games you play while scoring 4 runs or more.

Needless to say, the Braves are dominant here. Atlanta is the only team in baseball that scores at least 4 runs over 70% of the time (Tampa Bay is second at 66.7%). We are 32-5 in those games. The Giants, on the other end of scale, do this only 38% of the time. But, yes, even the Giants are 15-4 in those games. It really surprised me to see this though it should be common sense I suppose.

The Rays actually look a tad more balanced because they are not just 27-5 in 4+ games but also 6-10 in 3> games. That .375 makes them the best loser in baseball. The Braves are .267 in such games, 4-11. The Reds are a decent loser too, going 8-15 versus their 18-9 in 4+.

The Dodgers scare me. They always do. Though they rank only 12th in 4+ percentage games, they are 27-2(!) in those games. And yet, only 4-17 in 3>. Bipolar.

The Brewers belong in the dominant conversation too. They are 25-4 when scoring 4+, nearly Dodgers-like, and their overall record backs up the quality. They are not quite as frequent at reaching 4+ as Atlanta or Tampa Bay, but when they get there, they are brutal.

Whimpishly, the Yankees, Twins and the Marlins have each only won 3 games all season when they scored 3 or fewer runs. They are 3-15, 3-16 and 3-18 respectively in 2026. A delightful stat for a Braves fan, especially where New York is concerned. Still, it is astonishing to me to see baseball this way. The Yankees are 27-6 in 4+ games, which they play 64.7% of the time. Good enough for third place on my stat list.

I call this my "most likely" stat. I'm having a little fun here. In any given game, the Braves will most likely score 4 or more runs (71.2%). They are .865 in winning those games. This might oversimplify things but not by much.

Looking at the Braves individual year-to-date: The lineup is being carried by Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II, and Dominic Smith, with Ozzie Albies solidly productive, Ronald Acuña Jr. useful but not fully himself, and Austin Riley the glaring underperformer.

Olson is the big thumper, sitting at .274/.353/.569 with 14 homers, 42 RBI, and a .922 OPS. That’s middle-of-the-order monster work.

Baldwin has actually been even better by OPS, .303/.389/.543 with 13 homers and a .932 OPS, though he’s now on the IL with an oblique strain, which sucks, we really need him. Harris is also cooking, .298/.324/.524 with 11 homers, and he just had a two-homer game against Miami. Dominic Smith has been a terrific surprise at .343/.367/.549, giving them real depth.

Albies is fine, maybe not flaming-hot, but absolutely helping. He’s at .276/.333/.439 with 8 homers, which is a good everyday second baseman line. Jorge Mateo has also been sneaky useful in a smaller role, .305/.349/.458, with 5 steals. That’s not star stuff, but it’s good roster oxygen. 

Mateo even pitched an inning in Monday's 12-0 blow-out of the Braves by Miami. I always enjoy seeing a position player pitch an inning. It doesn’t happen much. Manager Walt Weiss didn’t see the point in throwing another pitcher out there with the game a dumpster fire. Mateo gave up a hit but otherwise recorded three outs. It was not his first appearance.  He went to the mound once for the Orioles last season and got hammered, giving up 5 runs. Better results this time.

Meanwhile, Acuña is the big name who hasn’t quite looked like vintage Acuña. His line is .261/.370/.384 with 2 homers, 11 RBI, and 7 steals. The OBP is still strong, so he’s not dead weight at all, but the power has not shown up much. He returned from a hamstring absence, then left the May 21 game with a thumb issue, though X-rays were negative and it was called a bone bruise/day-to-day situation. So the read is, useful, dangerous, but he hasn’t caught up to his potential yet.

Even worse is Riley. He has the RBI total, 31, and 8 homers, but the overall line is only .208/.278/.375 with a .653 OPS. For Austin Riley, that’s a blinking red light. Mike Yastrzemski has also been light overall at .234/.305/.365, but he's a player off the bench, really. Outstanding defensive shortstop, Ha-Seong Kim has barely gotten going, .115/.233/.115 in 26 at-bats, and the catching depth behind Baldwin has been rough, with Sandy León and Sean Murphy combining for almost nothing offensively.

That's actually sort of good news.  If Riley gets going and Baldwin come back with his swing, and maybe Murphy gets back to form, this awesome line-up becomes practically unbeatable - barring injuries.  There's always that big asterisk hanging over baseball. As long as he stays healthy. Lots of ifs though we still lead MLB in batting average (.266). So no whining allowed, really.

On the pitching side, the Braves are getting elite work from starters Chris Sale and Bryce Elder, and outstanding relief from Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, and Raisel Iglesias. Sale is 7-3 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 72 strikeouts in 62 innings. Elder is right there too, 4-2 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The bullpen has been ridiculous at the top, with Lee at 0.77 ERA, Robert Suarez at 0.42 ERA, and Iglesias still untouched at 0.00 ERA with 8 saves. 

Returning from injury, Spencer Strider is only four starts in, but his 3.00 ERA, 27 strikeouts in 21 innings, and nine strikeouts last night says the lightning is still in the bottle (despite three solo homers allowed grrrr). 

These names and the rest of the Braves staff are the best in baseball as of this post.  Collectively, they lead the league by posting a 3.09 ERA, while holding opposing batters to hitting just .206. So, in our games, we are basically outhitting other teams .266 to .206. That's huge.

Even at an outstanding 36-16 there are plenty of concerns.  Can the pitching hold up?  Can Acuña and Riley level up? It's a long way to October!

But we are kicking ass today! Gotta love it!

Here is the complete “most likely” read on MLB going into tonight’s play…

MLB Most Likely Chart, Updated Through 5/21

Rank	Team	Overall	4+ Games	4+ %	4+ Record	4+ Win %	3 or Fewer Record	3 or Fewer Win %
1	Braves	36-16	37	71.2%	32-5	.865	4-11	.267
2	Rays	33-15	32	66.7%	27-5	.844	6-10	.375
3	Yankees	30-21	33	64.7%	27-6	.818	3-15	.167
4	Pirates	26-24	32	64.0%	20-12	.625	6-12	.333
5	Nationals	25-26	32	62.7%	19-13	.594	6-13	.316
6	Cubs	29-21	31	62.0%	24-7	.774	5-14	.263
7	Twins	23-27	31	62.0%	20-11	.645	3-16	.158
8	Brewers	29-18	29	61.7%	25-4	.862	4-14	.222
9	Diamondbacks	26-23	30	61.2%	21-9	.700	5-14	.263
10	Marlins	22-29	30	58.8%	19-11	.633	3-18	.143
11	Athletics	26-24	29	58.0%	20-9	.690	6-15	.286
12	Dodgers	31-19	29	58.0%	27-2	.931	4-17	.190
13	Guardians	30-22	29	55.8%	24-5	.828	6-17	.261
14	Cardinals	28-21	27	55.1%	23-4	.852	5-17	.227
15	White Sox	25-24	27	55.1%	20-7	.741	5-17	.227
16	Reds	26-24	27	54.0%	18-9	.667	8-15	.348
17	Phillies	25-25	26	52.0%	19-7	.731	6-18	.250
18	Padres	29-20	25	51.0%	21-4	.840	8-16	.333
19	Mariners	24-27	26	51.0%	18-8	.692	6-19	.240
20	Blue Jays	22-28	25	50.0%	17-8	.680	5-20	.200
21	Orioles	21-29	25	50.0%	17-8	.680	4-21	.160
22	Royals	20-30	25	50.0%	15-10	.600	5-20	.200
23	Tigers	20-31	25	49.0%	16-9	.640	4-22	.154
24	Rangers	24-25	24	49.0%	19-5	.792	5-20	.200
25	Astros	20-31	24	47.1%	14-10	.583	6-21	.222
26	Mets	22-28	23	46.0%	18-5	.783	4-23	.148
27	Angels	17-34	21	41.2%	13-8	.619	4-26	.133
28	Rockies	19-32	21	41.2%	14-7	.667	5-25	.167
29	Red Sox	22-27	20	40.8%	14-6	.700	8-21	.276
30	Giants	20-30	19	38.0%	15-4	.789	5-26	.161

Go Braves!