Most Likely: The 2026 Atlanta Braves (so far)

I was playing around with ChatGPT about baseball facts and stats recently. The Atlanta Braves are off to a fantastic, even commanding, start to the 2026 MLB season. I’m a happy fan. Best record in baseball. Best team batting average. Best team ERA. Baseball can be a complex sport but when are batting better than anyone and giving up the fewest earned runs you are going to win a lot of ballgames.

During the course of a long chat, I wandered upon some team baseball stats that shocked me. Far more likely than not, any given team will lose any given game if they fail to score 4 runs or more. The opponent's score does not matter (except indirectly). Disregarding everything else, just looking at runs your team scored, there is a huge gulf between 4 runs and 3 runs. Even more important is the percentage of games you play while scoring 4 runs or more.

Needless to say, the Braves are dominant here. Atlanta is the only team in baseball that scores at least 4 runs over 70% of the time (Tampa Bay is second at 67.3%). We are 32-5 in those games. The Giants, on the other end of scale, do this only 39% of the time. But, yes, even the Giants are 15-4 in those games. It really surprised me to see this though it should be common sense I suppose.

The Rays actually look a tad more balanced because they are not just 27-5 in 4+ games but also 6-10 in 3< games. That .375 makes them the best loser in baseball. The Braves are .267 in such games, 4-11. The Reds are a decent loser too, going 8-15 versus their 18-9 in 4+.

The Dodgers scare me. They always do. Though they rank only 12th in 4+ percentage games, they are 27-2(!) in those games. And yet, only 4-17 in 3 or less. Bipolar.

The Brewers belong in the dominant conversation too. They are 25-4 when scoring 4+, nearly Dodgers-like, and their overall record backs up the quality. They are not quite as frequent at reaching 4+ as Atlanta or Tampa Bay, but when they get there, they are brutal.

Whimpishly, the Yankees, Twins and the Marlins have each only won 3 games all season when they scored 3 or fewer runs. They are 3-15, 3-16 and 3-18 respectively in 2026. A delightful stat for a Braves fan, especially where New York is concerned. Still, it is astonishing to me to see baseball this way. The Yankees are 27-6 in 4+ games, which they play 64.7% of the time. Good enough for third place on my stat list.

I call this my "most likely" stat. I'm having a little fun here. In any given game, the Braves will most likely score 4 or more runs (71.2%). They are .865 in winning those games. This might oversimplify things but not by much.

Looking at the Braves individual year-to-date: The lineup is being carried by Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Michael Harris II, and Dominic Smith, with Ozzie Albies solidly productive, Ronald Acuña Jr. useful but not fully himself, and Austin Riley the glaring underperformer.

Olson is the big thumper, sitting at .274/.353/.569 with 14 homers, 42 RBI, and a .922 OPS. That’s middle-of-the-order monster work.

Baldwin has actually been even better by OPS, .303/.389/.543 with 13 homers and a .932 OPS, though he’s now on the IL with an oblique strain, which sucks, we really need him. Unfortunately, the update today is that he is expected to miss a month. That’s a long time to play without arguably one of the best hitters in baseball right now. Injuries! Harris is also cooking, .298/.324/.524 with 11 homers, and he just had a two-homer game against Miami. Dominic Smith has been a terrific surprise at .343/.367/.549, giving them real depth. We need more surprises like that!

Albies is fine, maybe not flaming-hot, but absolutely consistent and helping. He’s at .276/.333/.439 with 8 homers, which is a good everyday second baseman line. Jorge Mateo has also been sneaky useful in a smaller role, .305/.349/.458, with 6 steals. That’s not star stuff, but it’s good situational oxygen of the bench. 

Mateo even pitched an inning in Monday's 12-0 blow-out of the Braves by Miami. I always enjoy seeing a position player pitch an inning. It doesn’t happen much. Manager Walt Weiss didn’t see the point in throwing another pitcher out there with the game a complete dumpster fire. Mateo gave up a hit but otherwise recorded three outs. It was not his first appearance.  He went to the mound once for the Orioles last season and got hammered, giving up 5 runs. Better results this time.

Meanwhile, Acuña is the big name who hasn’t quite looked like vintage Acuña. His line is .261/.370/.384 with 2 homers, 11 RBI, and 7 steals. The OBP is still strong, so he’s not dead weight at all, but the power has not shown up much. He returned from a hamstring absence, then left the May 21 game with a thumb issue, though X-rays were negative and it was called a bone bruise/day-to-day situation. So the read is, useful, dangerous, but he hasn’t caught up to his potential yet.

Even worse is Riley. He has the right level RBI total, 31, and 8 homers, but the overall line is only .208/.278/.375 with a .653 OPS. For Austin Riley, that’s a blinking red light. Mike Yastrzemski has also been light overall at .234/.305/.365, but he's a player off the bench, really. Outstanding defensive shortstop, Ha-Seong Kim has barely gotten going, .115/.233/.115 in 26 at-bats (after recovery from an injury), and the catching depth behind Baldwin has been rough, a patchwork of players accounting for almost nothing offensively.

That's actually sort of good news.  We are at the top now and there is room to be even better. If Riley and, more importantly, Acuña get going this line-up is just only going to become stronger - barring injuries.  There's always that big asterisk hanging over baseball. As long as he stays healthy. Lots of ifs though we still lead MLB in batting average (.266). So no whining allowed, really.

On the pitching side, the Braves are getting elite work from starters Chris Sale and Bryce Elder, and outstanding relief from Dylan Lee, Robert Suarez, and Raisel Iglesias. Sale is 7-3 with a 1.89 ERA, 0.87 WHIP, and 72 strikeouts in 62 innings. Elder is right there too, 4-2 with a 2.01 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. The bullpen has been ridiculous at the top, with Lee at 0.77 ERA, Robert Suarez at 0.42 ERA, and Iglesias still untouched at 0.00 ERA with 8 saves. 

Returning from injury, Spencer Strider is only four starts in, but his 3.00 ERA, 27 strikeouts in 21 innings, and nine strikeouts last night says the lightning is still in the bottle (despite three solo homers allowed in last night's win, grrrr). 

These names and the rest of the Braves staff are the best in baseball as of this post.  Collectively, they lead the league by posting a 3.09 ERA, while holding opposing batters to hitting just .206. So, in our games, we are basically outhitting other teams .266 to .206. That's huge.

Even at an outstanding 36-16 there are plenty of concerns.  Can the pitching hold up?  Can Acuña and Riley level up? It's a long way to October!

But we are kicking ass today! Gotta love it!

Here is the complete “most likely” read on MLB going into tonight’s play…

Note: ChatGPT being ChatGPT is unreliable in many ways.  It sucks at math.  Anyway, the next day I caught some errors in how the AI was gathering data and now post this updated version of the chart which is verified as correct. This is the next day's numbers. See note below...

MLB Most Likely Chart, Updated Through 5/22

Rank	Team	Overall	4+ Games	4+ %	4+ Record	4+ Win %	3 or Fewer Record	3 or Fewer Win %
1	Braves	36-16	37	71.2%	32-5	.865	4-11	.267
2	Rays	34-15	33	67.3%	28-5	.848	6-10	.375
3	Yankees	30-22	33	63.5%	27-6	.818	3-16	.158
4	Nationals	25-27	33	63.5%	19-14	.576	6-13	.316
5	Pirates	26-25	32	62.7%	20-12	.625	6-13	.316
6	Twins	24-27	32	62.7%	21-11	.656	3-16	.158
7	Brewers	30-18	30	62.5%	26-4	.867	4-14	.222
8	Cubs	29-22	31	60.8%	24-7	.774	5-15	.250
9	Diamondbacks	26-24	30	60.0%	21-9	.700	5-15	.250
10	Marlins	23-29	30	57.7%	19-11	.633	4-18	.182
11	Dodgers	31-20	29	56.9%	27-2	.931	4-18	.182
12	Athletics	26-25	29	56.9%	20-9	.690	6-16	.273
13	White Sox	26-24	28	56.0%	21-7	.750	5-17	.227
14	Cardinals	28-21	27	55.1%	23-4	.852	5-17	.227
15	Guardians	31-22	29	54.7%	24-5	.828	7-17	.292
16	Reds	26-24	27	54.0%	18-9	.667	8-15	.348
17	Padres	30-20	26	52.0%	22-4	.846	8-16	.333
18	Phillies	25-26	26	51.0%	19-7	.731	6-19	.240
19	Blue Jays	24-27	26	51.0%	18-8	.692	6-19	.240
20	Orioles	22-29	26	51.0%	18-8	.692	4-21	.160
21	Mariners	25-27	26	50.0%	18-8	.692	7-19	.269
22	Rangers	24-26	25	50.0%	19-6	.760	5-20	.200
23	Tigers	20-32	26	50.0%	16-10	.615	4-22	.154
24	Royals	20-31	25	49.0%	15-10	.600	5-21	.192
25	Astros	21-31	25	48.1%	15-10	.600	6-21	.222
26	Mets	22-29	23	45.1%	18-5	.783	4-24	.143
27	Angels	18-34	22	42.3%	14-8	.636	4-26	.133
28	Red Sox	22-28	21	42.0%	14-7	.667	8-21	.276
29	Rockies	20-32	21	40.4%	14-7	.667	6-25	.194
30	Giants	20-31	20	39.2%	15-5	.750	5-26	.161

Go Braves!

Late Note: The Braves beat the Nationals 5-4 in 11 innings. Our Spring Training #5 depth chart catcher, Chapwick Tromp, came through with two late hits driving in two runs including a walk-off. I noticed this morning (May 23) that while the Nats are #4 on my most likely list they are dead last in baseball in winning 4+ games, posting a 19-14 record. Which is exactly the sort of game we got last night!