The 2026 Atlanta Braves Are Crashing

I have tinkered with my "Most Likely" chart from May.  It became the "Win Zone" Chart, showing the clear discrepancy of scoring 4+ runs per game versus 3 or less in Major League Baseball.  This is the chart going into tonight's play. The Braves have been #1 on this chart all season until yesterday or maybe the day before. They are currently #3 which would ordinarily be considered great, something to get fired up about. But their dominance has become an epic choke over the last 12 games going only 3 - 9. 

I especially like the + for win and - for a loss formatting.  You can view the entire league at a glance and see that the Dodgers, Brewers, Astros, Marlins and Phillies are all hot right now. Atlanta is playing as well as the lowly Mets right now. Oh god. This earns them three minuses on my chart, worst possible trend. *'s are rising trends. 

Rk Team W-L 4+% 4+Rec 4+W% 4+WS ≤3Rec ≤3W% ≤3WS TotWS Last12 L12 Trend
-- ---------- ------ ---- ------ ---- ----- ------ ----- ----- ----- ------------ ---- -----
1 Dodgers 52-29 .617 45-5 .900 .556 7-24 .226 .086 .642 -+-++++--+++ .667
2 Brewers 49-29 .603 40-7 .851 .513 9-22 .290 .115 .628 +-+++---++++ .667
3 Braves 48-31 .658 41-11 .788 .519 7-20 .259 .089 .608 --+---++---- .250 ---
4 Yankees 48-32 .637 41-10 .804 .512 7-22 .241 .087 .600 ++++-+---++- .583
5 Rays 45-33 .603 38-9 .809 .487 7-24 .226 .090 .577 -+---+-+--++ .417 -
6 Phillies 45-36 .531 34-9 .791 .420 11-27 .289 .136 .556 +-++--++-+++ .667 *
7 Cubs 44-37 .605 38-11 .776 .469 6-26 .188 .074 .543 ++-+-++-++++ .750 **
8 Cardinals 42-36 .590 34-12 .739 .436 8-24 .250 .103 .538 -+-++---++-- .417 -
9 Padres 42-37 .481 31-7 .816 .392 11-30 .268 .139 .532 -++--+-+-+++ .583
10 White Sox 41-38 .582 32-14 .696 .405 9-24 .273 .114 .519 +-+--+---++- .417 -
11 Guardians 42-39 .506 31-10 .756 .383 11-29 .275 .136 .519 -++--+-+---+ .417 -
12 Marlins 42-39 .568 36-10 .783 .444 6-29 .171 .074 .519 +-+--++++-++ .667 *
13 D-backs 41-39 .588 34-13 .723 .425 7-26 .212 .087 .512 +-++-++---++ .583
14 Pirates 41-40 .593 33-15 .688 .407 8-25 .242 .099 .506 -+--++--+-++ .500
15 Mariners 41-41 .476 28-11 .718 .341 13-30 .302 .159 .500 +--+-+--++-- .417
16 Nationals 41-41 .634 33-19 .635 .402 8-22 .267 .098 .500 ++++--+-+--- .500
17 Astros 40-43 .518 30-13 .698 .361 10-30 .250 .120 .482 +--+++-+-+++ .667 *
18 Blue Jays 39-42 .506 28-13 .683 .346 11-29 .275 .136 .481 +--+++-++--- .500
19 Athletics 39-42 .593 32-16 .667 .395 7-26 .212 .086 .481 +-+--++----+ .417
20 Rangers 39-42 .494 32-8 .800 .395 7-34 .171 .086 .481 -+---+-++--+ .417
21 Reds 37-42 .506 28-12 .700 .354 9-30 .231 .114 .468 -+-++--++--- .417
22 Orioles 38-44 .573 33-14 .702 .402 5-30 .143 .061 .463 +---+--+++-- .417
23 Twins 38-44 .646 35-18 .660 .427 3-26 .103 .037 .463 +-++++-++--- .583 *
24 Mets 34-47 .457 30-7 .811 .370 4-40 .091 .049 .420 -+--++------ .250 -
25 Tigers 34-47 .519 30-12 .714 .370 4-35 .103 .049 .420 --+--++++--- .417
26 Red Sox 33-46 .468 25-12 .676 .316 8-34 .190 .101 .418 +----++--+-+ .417
27 Royals 34-48 .524 27-16 .628 .329 7-32 .179 .085 .415 -+--+++-++-- .500
28 Angels 34-48 .488 28-12 .700 .341 6-36 .143 .073 .415 +--+---++-++ .500
29 Giants 33-47 .400 24-8 .750 .300 9-39 .188 .113 .412 +--+++---++- .500
30 Rockies 32-49 .543 24-20 .545 .296 8-29 .216 .099 .395 --+-+-++-+-+ .500 *

I started feeling it before the Pirates series, even though we swept Pittsburgh. For me, it was the Blue Jays series. We took two of three, which is the kind of result that makes a reasonable person say, “Fine, we won the series.” My baseball buddy Jerry did say that, more or less. He pointed out that we had won 17 series, lost two, and split one. Hard to argue with that. The record was glorious. We were 40-20 through May 31 and sitting atop baseball.

Still, I did not like the look of it. I told him they were gasping. He thought I was ridiculous.

But the hits were not falling as often. The offense struck out more. Guys were missing, guys were slumping, and the dependable rhythm of the team kept getting interrupted. Drake Baldwin got hurt. Austin Riley kept looking awful at the plate. Matt Olson was cooling. Ronald Acuña Jr. went down again. Sean Murphy was gone. The starters got shaky. The bullpen, for a while, was the one comforting part of the picture. The lifeboat, still floating while the ship tilted.

Then we began losing, and the numbers caught up with the feeling.

Through May 31, we were the defining “four or more runs” team in baseball. We scored at least four in 42 of our first 60 games, a .700 rate, and went 36-6 in those games. Score four against us and we usually won anyway. Score four for us and the game was over. 36-6. An .857 winning percentage.

That was our identity. We did not have to win ugly little 2-1 games, because we were devastating once the offense woke up. We got to four runs, often more, and slammed the door.

Now look at the chart above.

We still get to four runs in a healthy share of our games, .658 for the season. But our 4+ record has fallen to 41-11, a .788 winning percentage. Still good in the abstract. Terrible relative to what Atlanta had been, because the recent Braves have gone 5-5 when we scored four or more. Our automatic win condition has become a coin flip.

Bad sign. Like almost all of baseball, we fare poorly in low-scoring games. We are 7-20 when scoring three or fewer runs. The formula was always dangerous because it depended on the offense reaching its preferred zone. When that offense was rolling, fine. When the bats slowed, the team had almost no alternative identity. The Dodgers can beat you 3-2. The Brewers can win 2-1. We have looked like we need to hit our way out of every problem.

And lately, we have not been hitting our way out of much.

Riley is one of the main symbols of it. He is supposed to be a central force in the order, one of the hitters who keeps pitchers from simply navigating around Olson. Instead, he has spent too much of the season looking like a strikeout waiting for a pitch to arrive. He is hitting .214 with a .643 OPS. A hole in the middle of a lineup built to have none.

The $20 million Ha-Seong Kim has been even worse. He is hitting .085. He has not even consistently provided the clean defense that might make a club willing to endure the bat. Mauricio Dubón and Jorge Mateo have split duties there and performed well. Dubón, particularly, has been a consistent contributor from multiple positions. One of our strongest players through all this mess.

Baldwin’s return might be the strangest little tragedy in the whole thing. His first at-bat off the injured list produced the longest home run in baseball so far this season, a 473-foot bomb. Then he basically started striking out. He has now gone 2-for-27.

The starting rotation has become just as unsettling.

Chris Sale is still Sale by normal human standards. By Sale standards, he has been uneven. We need him magnificent every time out, because there is no second dependable anchor behind him. A merely good Sale start now feels shaky, with so little cushion behind it.

JR Ritchie was a minor leaguer who got a chance for the Braves. He crashed hardest, which happens to a lot of young kids coming up. The walks, the short starts, the five-run outings became too much, and he got sent back down. Martín Pérez has had useful stretches and too many outings where he cannot work deep enough to protect the bullpen. Grant Holmes has been volatile. Spencer Strider is probably out for the season. Reynaldo López is being pushed back toward starting because someone has to take the ball. It's ugly, really.

The bullpen is still the best news. It has been the main thing keeping the whole enterprise afloat. But even a strong bullpen wears down absorbing early exits and bad innings and constant pressure. Ask pitchers to clean up everyone else’s mess long enough and the mess starts winning.

The June record is now 8-11. In my mind it feels a lot worse than that. But that is because I got spoiled on all those runs night after night. We are not the worst in baseball this month, but maybe the most alarming, because of where we started. We were 40-20 at the end of May. Best record in baseball. Ten games up on the second-place Phillies, who we had recently swept in Philadelphia. We were on fire! The dominance was visible and relentless.

Now we are 48-31. On the Win Zone chart above, that leaves us tied with the Yankees and behind the Dodgers and Brewers. We have gone 4-10 since June 6. Our last 12 games are 3-9. We got swept by the Padres. The Mets, having a terrible June of their own, beat us twice, surely the low point of the season so far.

We may recover. There is too much talent here to declare the season dead in late June. Olson and Michael Harris can still carry an offense. Harris and Ozzie Albies have both been solid performers so far. At the plate, the rest of the team needs to play at their level. Acuña and Murphy will eventually return. Sale remains one of the best pitchers in baseball. The bullpen, dealing with minor injuries of its own, is still among the best in baseball.

But the offense has thinned. The key hitters have gone unreliable. The injuries have piled up. The rotation has turned shaky. And the old superpower, winning whenever we scored four runs, has become uncertain.

Three weeks ago we were 10 games up on the Philadelphia Phillies and looking good to win the division. The crash has, of course, coincided with the Phillies getting hot. Now they have five fewer losses than we do. We might as well be tied. Or maybe we're already in second place and it just hasn't shown up yet.

Not that any of it is preordained. It's baseball. Anything can happen. Still, it's a strange, bipolar season, best team in baseball through April and May, one of the worst in June.

I guess the only "plus" I see here is if you're going to slump, or crash, June is not a bad month to do it in. It's still a long way to October.