The 2026 New York Yankees Are Crashing

My Win Zone chart going into today's play...compare with here and here.

Rk  Team        W-L     4+%   4+Rec  4+W%  4+WS  ≤3Rec   ≤3W%  ≤3WS  TotWS  Last12        L12   Trend

--  ----------  ------  ----  ------  ----  -----  ------  -----  -----  -----  ------------  ----  -----

 1  Dodgers     61-33   .617  53-5    .914   .564  8-28     .222   .085   .649  ++++-+++-+-+  .750  *

 2  Brewers     58-34   .598  48-7    .873   .522  10-27    .270   .109   .630  -+++-+-++++-  .667

 3  Rays        54-36   .611  45-10   .818   .500  9-26     .257   .100   .600  +++++++---++  .750  **

 4  Braves      53-38   .648  44-15   .746   .484  9-23     .281   .099   .582  +---+-++---+  .417  --

 5  Cubs        52-40   .609  45-11   .804   .489  7-29     .194   .076   .565  +-+++++--+++  .750  **

 6  Phillies    51-42   .538  39-11   .780   .419  12-31    .279   .129   .548  +-+-++-+--+-  .500

 7  Marlins     51-42   .591  44-11   .800   .473  7-31     .184   .075   .548  ++-++--+++++  .750  **

 8  Yankees     50-42   .609  43-13   .768   .467  7-29     .194   .076   .543  ------+--+--  .167  ---

 9  Cardinals   48-43   .560  38-13   .745   .418  10-30    .250   .110   .527  -++-+++----+  .500

10  White Sox   47-44   .571  36-16   .692   .396  11-28    .282   .121   .516  ++-++---++--  .500

11  Nationals   48-46   .638  40-20   .667   .426  8-26     .235   .085   .511  -++-+++--+-+  .583

12  Guardians   47-46   .516  36-12   .750   .387  11-34    .244   .118   .505  -++--+++----  .417

13  Mariners    47-46   .484  32-13   .711   .344  15-33    .312   .161   .505  -+--+++-++--  .500

14  Pirates     47-46   .624  39-19   .672   .419  8-27     .229   .086   .505  --++--+-+++-  .500

15  Rangers     46-46   .511  38-9    .809   .413  8-37     .178   .087   .500  ++++++-+--+-  .667  **

16  Padres      46-46   .478  35-9    .795   .380  11-37    .229   .120   .500  --------+-++  .250  --

17  Twins       46-47   .656  41-20   .672   .441  5-27     .156   .054   .495  -+-++-+-++++  .667  **

18  D-backs     45-47   .587  38-16   .704   .413  7-31     .184   .076   .489  ---++--+-+--  .333  --

19  Astros      46-49   .526  35-15   .700   .368  11-34    .244   .116   .484  -++-+--++-+-  .500

20  Blue Jays   44-49   .495  31-15   .674   .333  13-34    .277   .140   .473  ---+-++---++  .417

21  Red Sox     42-48   .511  34-12   .739   .378  8-36     .182   .089   .467  +++++--+++++  .833  ***

22  Reds        42-49   .505  32-14   .696   .352  10-35    .222   .110   .462  ++----+--+-+  .417

23  Tigers      42-50   .565  37-15   .712   .402  5-35     .125   .054   .457  -+--+++-++++  .667  **

24  Orioles     42-51   .548  35-16   .686   .376  7-35     .167   .075   .452  -+----+++---  .333  -

25  Athletics   41-51   .576  34-19   .642   .370  7-32     .179   .076   .446  ++----+-----  .250  --

26  Mets        39-54   .462  34-9    .791   .366  5-45     .100   .054   .419  -+--+---++-+  .417

27  Giants      38-54   .413  28-10   .737   .304  10-44    .185   .109   .413  -++--+-+-+--  .417

28  Royals      38-55   .516  31-17   .646   .333  7-38     .156   .075   .409  ---+----+++-  .333

29  Rockies     38-56   .574  30-24   .556   .319  8-32     .200   .085   .404  +-+-+-+-+-+-  .500

30  Angels      37-56   .473  31-13   .705   .333  6-43     .122   .065   .398  +-++-------+  .333


The New York Yankees suck right now. Worse than the Braves even. Worse than anybody.

The Braves have been hard to watch lately. The pitching has wobbled. The hitting has vanished, early season dominance has faded. The whole thing has had that familiar Braves quality of being both very good and extremely annoying.

But the Yankees are worse right now.

My Win Zone chart for today is blunt about it.

Atlanta is 53-38. The Yankees are 50-42. Atlanta is fourth in Total Win Share at .582. The Yankees are eighth at .543. All good really until you consider the Last12 column, the record over the past 12 games (a stat I like better than the standard last 10).

The Braves are 5-7 over that stretch. Bad. Irritating. A double-minus trend. But it was worse on June 30. It seemed unbearable then. That's where the Yankees are today.

New York is 2-10. Six straight losses (always painful). One win. Two more losses. One win. Two more losses.

The strange thing is that the Yankees are not bad in the normal way. Their pitching is excellent. They have the second best team ERA in baseball. Great pitching is always a plus and usually keeps you in every ballgame.

But, as the Braves know all too well, you have to hit too. You have to score runs. The Yankees are batting .234. That puts them near the bottom of baseball, tied in practical terms with the lowly New York Mets.

The Yankees are hitting like the Mets.

The comparison with the Braves is useful here. Atlanta is batting .248. That is a little better than the MLB average. Given how ugly the last couple of weeks have felt, that is somewhat surprising. And hopeful. The Braves are not a dead offense. They are a frustrating offense.

The Braves still score four or more runs more often than anybody in the chart. Their 4+ percentage is .648, second best in baseball after the Twins (see below). But a lot of that has to do with them being at an astonishing .700 in this category at the end of May. It takes a while to fall from that lofty height.

The Yankees are at .609. Also good. Anything over .600 is elite, really. Few teams can do it.

The Braves’ problem is conversion. Atlanta is 44-15 when scoring four or more, a .746 winning percentage. Good, but not great by the standards of the best teams. The Dodgers are 53-5. The Brewers are 48-7. The Cubs are 45-11. The Yankees, even with everything going wrong, are 43-13.

That is the irritating Braves story. We get into the Win Zone more than almost anybody, then we started losing too many of those games.

The Yankees’ problem is in some ways more frustrating. When they score four or more, they are fine. Better than fine. They are 43-13, a .768 winning percentage. But when they score three or fewer, they are 7-29. That is .194.

You have to read the 3-or-fewer category like a batting average. Everybody loses most of those games. Nobody is supposed to be good there. It is baseball jail. Right now, the Yankees are hitting .194 in baseball jail.

The Braves are 9-23 when scoring three or fewer. That is .281. In normal win percentage terms, that looks bad. In this category, it is actually pretty good. Again, read it like a batting average. Atlanta is not failing there. Atlanta is doing fine.

The Phillies are 12-31, .279. Very similar. More total low-run wins because they have been stuck in the category more often.

The Mariners are the standout at 15-33, .312. That is impressive. The best record in baseball in low-scoring games. The Twins show the other end of it. They are 5-27. That is .156. Minnesota scores four or more even more often than Atlanta, but when they do not, they become pathetic. The Twins are the caution sign. Score four or die.

The Yankees are not quite that bad, but they are too close for a team with pitching that strong. Right now, they have the pitching of a contender and the batting average of a cellar-dweller.

That creates a special kind of misery. A bad team with bad pitching and bad hitting is just bad. Nothing mysterious there. Everyone can go outside and mow.

A good pitching staff with a dead offense is worse to watch. The game stays close enough to hurt. The starter gives them six strong innings. The bullpen keeps them alive. The lineup answers with three singles, eleven strikeouts, and a sad little grounder to second.

The Braves still have a strong season structure. Elite 4+ scoring frequency. Respectable low-run theft rate. Top four overall. The recent baseball has been ugly, but the chart still says the bones are good.

The Yankees’ bones are stranger. The pitching is real. The 4+ record is real. The overall record is still very good. But the offense is missing Aaron Judge, which is enormous. He has a stress fracture of the first rib on his right side. He went on the injured list in early June and the Yankees were waiting four to six weeks before reimaging him to see how much healing had taken place.

That is the center of the lineup gone.

Giancarlo Stanton has been out with a right calf strain and then had a setback. Trent Grisham was also part of the injury mess before coming back.

Then the available hitters went cold at the same time. Paul Goldschmidt went 0-for-34. Cody Bellinger was hitting .114 over 70 at-bats during his slump. The Yankees were shut out by Tampa Bay yesterday with six infield singles and 11 strikeouts.

This is how a team with the second best ERA in baseball can still look awful. The pitching keeps the game close. The hitting makes the closeness irrelevant.

The Yankees are not scoring. They are not hitting. They are not stealing enough low-run games. They are wasting excellent pitching while batting near the bottom of baseball.

I know the feeling. The Braves are just coming out of their crash. They were the worst batting team in June. I hope that's over with.

I hate the Yankees though. It is part of baseball for me to hate the Yankees. I have never been disappointed by a Yankee loss ever. Nor do I suffer at all for them now. Go Braves.

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